$10 SNG - SNG Wiz says Fold

[willwonka]

I don't have have history; but here are the facts:

CO: 4345
Hero: 1410
SB: 1690
BB: 6055

Blinds 80/160

Cutoff Min Raises... I push with KJo..

SNG Wiz says fold. I am still trying to understand ICM (and SNG Wiz) and Bubble Strategys. Even if I put CO on Loosest Range, it says fold. I know this is a math thing; but the min raise says he just wants blinds (or does it). I thought a push has enough FE for him to fold if he was on a steal.

[Shrooma]

You should fold here for several reasons. You are pushing into a very large stack that has already shown some strength, and there is another large stack (BB) yet to act. Larger stacked opponents have a looser calling range and you'll find yourself being a slight dog against Ax a lot of the time here.
Furthermore, you've got position (in a strange way) on the other short stack leaving you with a lot of pushes when you're in the small blind. I think it's better to save your stack for these situations as well as being the first agressor.

[Slim Pickens]

I wouldn't expect you to have much luck with the default ranges in SNGWhiz for something as sensitive to hand range as shoving over a minraise. First, there's two hand ranges for CO: his minraising range and his push-calling-after-he-minraises-and-you-shove range. Second, there's a lot more equity at stake in this decision than there usually is at this blind level because of the minraise chips.

You best course of action is to start looking at what ranges of hands he could have to make this push +$EV, and then decide if those ranges make any sense.

[Webster]

[ QUOTE ]
a very large stack that has already shown some strength

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is the key right there. When I'm pushing I want to make sure I'm going against random cards. Even with a large stack min raise it shows he has SOMETHING!

[rakemeplz]

Stating obvious: a big part of icm/sng play is relative stack sizes, here you're trying to get in the money against a shortstack, pushing here you have a good chance of being knocked out of the tournament if you're called (by a large stack getting decent pot odds). I don't like it.

[drzen]

Read Slim's post with care.

Your big problem here is that it's only just a bit more than 1K for him to call, so he's not folding all that much that he's raising in the first place. If he raises very loose, he's still calling with pairs, broadways and aces, which is 27%, and probably a few other hands as well. Do you seriously expect him to fold more than that for 1K?

Plus, some of the time SB will have a hand that he likes enough to try to get involved too. And BB has a big stack and will call you a lot more than you think, particularly with the raise in. (Take a look in Wiz at it with BB on "very tight". He's still calling with 16% and that's about right for a tight player; loose ones will call wider.)

Actually, Wiz has it as a fold even if UTG just folded. You'd need BB and SB to both call as tight as 9% to make it a push *even without UTG*. Put him in, have him fold all but 9% to your push, and you still have a fold.

I guess KJ just isn't the monster you thought it was.

[jkpoker]

insta fold

[Magnus1092]

dude thats a super easy fold, you just can shuv there its insane

[willwonka]

Thanks for all the feedback. I had a similar situation with ATs which it also said to fold so I am definitely reading and trying to understand ICM better.

FWIW, the UTG min raiser had QTo.

The T hit the flop; but with the Q on river, it gave me a straight and I won the pot; but that is besides the point.

Taking it the next step... from the QT guys perspective. ICM speaking, is this a good raise (or perhaps should it be shove). I would think fold..

Then, if min raise and I push, should you still call with QTo not quite getting 2-1?

Thanks again for all the comments and it is helping me understand this better.

[Tantalus747]

CO should have made it 2.5 or 3x bb and called a shove from the 2 small stacks and folded to the other big stack push.

With higher blinds it becomes a nobrainer push for the CO and he kills the bubble.