online bankroll and USD plummet

[conslice]

i have about 150k online in us funds and i dont really need that much i play 510nl but latley some 1020 wich i dont feel is going to be all that profitable for me. im wondering. with where the dollar is right now ( i am canadian) should i be rushing to get this money off and into canadian dollar investments ( kind of skeptical to do this because at this point im at a huge loss with how the ex-rate stands) or should i wait it out in hopes of a correction of the USD. i have a half payed off rental apartment that i would consider paying off completley or i could also give more money to my broker so he can loose it or i could make a downpayment on another rental appartment and have that start paying itself???. someone with wisdom pleae advise im but a dropout pokerplayer

[ArturiusX]

No one knows what the currency exchange rates are going to do. What I do know is, reversals eventually happen. It might be in a year. It might be in 5 years. Either way, you need to make a decision based on what your prospects are.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
What I do know is, reversals eventually happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

they don't have to

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What I do know is, reversals eventually happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

they don't have to

[/ QUOTE ]

So in other words the US greenback has a shot to go to ZERO.....lol?

In any paper traded market(equities,bonds,etc),just based on one sided supply/demand and short postions alone......there are "USUALLY" reversal points just from the position liquidation process.The exception would be an equity going BR,or a BOND defaulting becoming worthless,where they could literally go straight DOWN .

But IMO the commodity/currency markets will ALWAYS have reversals...and thus some value...and markets like dollars,oil,gold,lumber,sugar,etc. will ALWAYS have some worth/value no matter what circumstnces arise.This is where the word INFLATION comes in(a whole other subject)

Heres a VERY vague example of just a mechanical $$$ reversal:

If 75% of the dollar is currntly short(which it probably is...Lol).In order to exit and profit from their postions...they have to BUY dollars back.That in itself will cause a reversal ,even if its just a short time period

That market may stay in its "current trend" for awhile but eventually the sheer mechanics of the markets will give you a direction change even if its short-term/or maybe even artificially induced.....such as when the Fed steps up and buys the $$$ to support/push it upwards..... or raises interest rates from the other standpoint affecting the dollars value from a foreign investors perspective

IMO...however the ONE market that is NEVER going to ZERO is the US Dollar.The govt. just wont let that happen no matter what they have to do.We might have 2000% inflation and feel like a banana republic....lol...but the US aint letting that happen

And I am in NO means an expert in currency trading.

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

***there are MANY knowledgable traders/investors on this board that can clarify this better than me regarding currencies,so maybe they can respond

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What I do know is, reversals eventually happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

they don't have to

[/ QUOTE ]

So in other words the US greenback has a shot to go to ZERO.....lol?


[/ QUOTE ]

That is definitely not the conclusion to be drawn from Pete's statement, and I have no idea how you came to it.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

But IMO the commodity/currency markets will ALWAYS have reversals...and thus some value...and markets like dollars,oil,gold,lumber,sugar,etc. will ALWAYS have some worth/value no matter what circumstnces arise.This is where the word INFLATION comes in(a whole other subject)

[/ QUOTE ]

there's no fundamental reason why a trend in a currency's value would ever have to reverse itself. a currency could easily decline year after year for eternity. inflation is not "a whole other subject". it's directly related to this. and i don't see why you think reversals = value.



[ QUOTE ]

Heres a VERY vague example of just a mechanical $$$ reversal:

If 75% of the dollar is currntly short(which it probably is...Lol).In order to exit and profit from their postions...they have to BUY dollars back.That in itself will cause a reversal ,even if its just a short time period


[/ QUOTE ]

yes, reversals happen. you gave an example of something that might cause a reversal. how does this show that a reversal has to happen eventually?

[ QUOTE ]

That market may stay in its "current trend" for awhile but eventually the sheer mechanics of the markets will give you a direction change even if its short-term/or maybe even artificially induced.....such as when the Fed steps up and buys the $$$ to support/push it upwards..... or raises interest rates from the other standpoint affecting the dollars value from a foreign investors perspective


[/ QUOTE ]

if there's a point somewhere in that paragraph i'm not seeing it.

[ QUOTE ]
IMO...however the ONE market that is NEVER going to ZERO is the US Dollar.The govt. just wont let that happen no matter what they have to do.We might have 2000% inflation and feel like a banana republic....lol...but the US aint letting that happen

[/ QUOTE ]

that is just naive.

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And I am in NO means an expert in currency trading.


[/ QUOTE ]

i can see that, but this topic really has nothing to do with currency "trading".

[stephenNUTS]

Hey Pete,

I was not trying to be sarcastic at all...
But one of your replies to my quotes that you object to...I strongly disagree with:

""""there's no fundamental reason why a trend in a currency's value would ever have to reverse itself. a currency could easily decline year after year for eternity. inflation is not "a whole other subject". it's directly related to this. and i don't see why you think reversals = value"""

The US dollar is NOT going to continue its downward spiral to HELL without our almighty US govt stepping in...PERIOD

I apologize for the mis-understanding ....but I was making a technical comparison with regard to a reversal in ANY market.A reversal,dead-cat bounce,trend change short or long term is imminent....and is something that"makes a market a market"

My US dollar prediction is based on fact that the US govt has bailed out banks,S+L's,airlines,Donald Trump,whoever in the past..lol.....they will most CERTAINLY bail out our currency to AVIOD my comical banana republic comment at some point.

Some things are taken SO out of context,and I apologize if I was wrong [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Stephen

[DcifrThs]

this thread is very funny.

OP, look at the tons of other threads on this topic in this forum.

Barron

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Pete,

I was not trying to be sarcastic at all...
But one of your replies to my quotes that you object to...I strongly disagree with:

""""there's no fundamental reason why a trend in a currency's value would ever have to reverse itself. a currency could easily decline year after year for eternity. inflation is not "a whole other subject". it's directly related to this. and i don't see why you think reversals = value"""

The US dollar is NOT going to continue its downward spiral to HELL without our almighty US govt stepping in...PERIOD

[/ QUOTE ]

so what part of what i said do you strongly disagree with?

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
there's no fundamental reason why a trend in a currency's value would ever have to reverse itself

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying the US dollar at somepoint WILL reverse this downtrend...if not then based on what you are saying it will go to ZERO .At this pace ,it should be there within a few short years w/o any reversal...right?

I mean if you want to get technical about it ....correct?


Now whether this is a reality or not...I doubt it.But from your standpoint of view..I guess any market can "technically or fundamentally"go to ZERO then?

Your missing my point here,so lets just move on

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]