Pokerstars VIP $285 cash question

[Henry17]

While I agree in general with that I think unless you live in Zimbabwe there is no way $100 now is worth $1000 in a year.

The wait is a factor of how much someone plays so it is hard to judge. I do 100k in under 20 days but even for someone who does it in 3-4 months unless they are completely dirt poor broke it is not worth losing 24% to get the funds now.

[BigPoppa]

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I guess $100 today has for me the same value as $1.000 after a year.

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That's utterly ridiculous.

[Henry17]

$100 today is worth about $103-110 in a year.

The only way it could be worth $1000 in a year is if someone lives in a country with hyper inflation, if someone was in some kind of jam where they were going to suffer harm unless they came up with money fast or if someone was completely penniless and broke.

[Greg Miller]

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For the tournament route to be worth it he'd need to win about 35% of the time when you factor in opportunity loss from the time and also the 1-3% loss selling $T

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In other words, it depends on how far below average (for these satellites) the player in question is. It's certainly going to be +EV to choose the satellites for a large number of players, albeit with huge variance.

[freecard4all]

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$100 today is worth about $103-110 in a year

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ok then. borrow me $100 and I'll give you $110 after a year.
See the problem? I don't talk about money you have thus you cannot use inflation.

The problems with poker money is
1) I can broke and wont be able to pay it
2) I can move up stakes and earn more per dollar than right now (that's called leverage).

[freecard4all]

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I guess $100 today has for me the same value as $1.000 after a year.

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That's utterly ridiculous.

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ok maybe exaggerated.

But if I could give $1000 to someone who would give me $250 a year ago I would do it without hesitation. Because now I would have more than that $1000.

The problems with the theories about inflation is no-one will lend me money for inflation rate. In fact no-one will lend anybody money for poker.

//edit: ok, maybe they would with a covenant that you will either pay or swim with cement boots [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Henry17]

The problem with lending you money is that anyone who has read these posts would have to assume you are an awful credit risk.

[BigPoppa]

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ok then. borrow me $100 and I'll give you $110 after a year.
See the problem? I don't talk about money you have thus you cannot use inflation.


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The only problem I see is you paying me back.
I'd have absolutely no problem with loaning money at 10% if the investment were safe.
I'm getting something like 5.5% right now.

[Henry17]

There is also the transaction costs to consider. 10% is a good rate of return but on $100 it wouldn't be worth the effort.

But this guy reminds me of all the delusional people on prosper.com. The claim that someone can generate 400%+ return on money yet needs to borrow money makes no sense to anyone who is not delusional or crazy.

[freecard4all]

HA HA HA of course I'm NOT able to give anyone 100% on safe investment. I wouldn't pay back the depth if I got broke! That's the point of the "price of money". That's the point of the "cement clause missing" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I still don't think you get the point. The OP wants $285 because no-one will lend him that. You have risk investment opportunities with 1.000% interest rate but with 50% chance of losing whole investment. Do you invest? It's a good investment. Now what's the price of the money. If you don't want to calculate yourself: the price is 500% because that's the EV of that investment.


BTW. I made several hundred % last year on poker investments. That being said I started from very low level.

Will I repeat it? I don't think so. But if I had $100 more a year ago I would have now more than $1000 more.

Get it? Price of money depends on real rate (EV) you can get. If he's going to crush the 200/400 game he needs to get there ASAP.