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#31
10-02-2007, 10:55 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
Here are some interesting facts. They are insufficient to prove anything and I'm not sure what they would prove anyway.
From PT- six max hands only: Dealt KK 176 times Won with KK 120 times Won before showdown (all fold) 50 times Won when improved post flop 61 times Won @ SD unimproved 9 times Big pairs lose value quickly when unimproved? 
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#32
10-02-2007, 10:59 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
[ QUOTE ]
Landon, What am I missing here. Is KK the absolute nutz in 6 max [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]? In full ring it beats no pair hands and smaller pairs. But it doesn't beat 2PR, AA, sets, trips, straights etc. you get the idea. We are in 3rd place here if we are up against reasonable players. We have some outs against 2PR and 2 outs against sets. Pot odds are not a concern against a made st8. The only question is where are we against THESE players. One last thing. The fact that bad players sometimes get good hands kind of balances the pot size. At least a little. Wait... one more last thing. If they have played a few orbits with Aussie and are paying any attention at all, they are not firing at him with air [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] 6max games are much looser than nitty ass FR. That doesn't make KK the nuts by any means, and we're still behind a lot, but there's a better chance we're not. And by "closer to a raise", I actually meant "still a call, but closer to a raise than it had been, though it really wasn't that close to a raise to begin with". Sorry, I should have clarified that.
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#34
10-02-2007, 11:02 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
[ QUOTE ]
Here are some interesting facts. They are insufficient to prove anything and I'm not sure what they would prove anyway. From PT- six max hands only: Dealt KK 176 times Won with KK 120 times Won before showdown (all fold) 50 times Won when improved post flop 61 times Won @ SD unimproved 9 times Big pairs lose value quickly when unimproved? [/ QUOTE ] wtf? You improved a lot of the time. Does that count when you made two pair on a paired board?
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#35
10-02-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
QUOTE from OP:The turn donker runs at about 45/5/1 and I have the following note on him "33ColdCalledPreflop and called down total underpair..didnt bet it when checked to on river HU" END QUOTE
This is the guy who donked the turn after two other players capped the flop. What does he do this with? And how many outs do we have that beats the worst hand he would do this with?
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#36
10-02-2007, 11:28 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
He probably has us beat. If he does we have eight outs or less.
But the pot is big, and we can add in at least two more bets from CO. There are an ungodly amount of combo draws out there. I don't think I can fold here.
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#37
10-03-2007, 12:09 AM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
[ QUOTE ]
this was a decision between calling and raising [/ QUOTE ] Agreed [ QUOTE ] I honestly thought this was a decision between calling and raising. Lets look at the action so far. CO is laggy and did NOT cap preflop. The likelihood of him having AA is minimal and unless he specifically has 99 or the unlikely lower set ive basically got him crushed with few outs. His flop capping is wtf and a concern though but if he is laggy this doesnt mean we are toasted. The calling station probably either has a draw or a weak made hand. If he has a draw I doubt he folds even if i raise. Im really most concerned about the donker here...wtf can he have? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] also think that if the 2 guys behind me have something then if I call they will define there hand at this point and tell me if Im beat and the donker will 3bet if Im pwned at which point I can release but call otherwise if he has something like 2pr or shizz like that. [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure if the accented thoughts follow. You say @ the decision point that the Lag is crushed and the calling station is going to call. Then you go on to state calling will help define their hands. How? The Lag will raise and the CS will call. The hands you are defining are Hero’s and the donk’s. +you fully expect to pay 2BB to see the river if you just call (i.e. the last bolded part – could be misread/type). Also, if you get a 6 outer to fold for two bets and force a passive turtle with two pair to shell up I can not see how that is not around a +2BB EV. 6 outs still need 7 to call, right (17/2=8.5)? edit: Just realized not all EV is ours You have probable hand ranges and could do some EVs calcs. : CO - AA is minimal and unless he specifically has 99 or the unlikely lower set CS- either has a draw or a weak made hand SB- has something like 2pr or shizz and adding from a later post “a guy with those stats just knows to CR a set here” so discount --- oh, don’t forgot the monsters Do you think raising is correct but are trying to rationalize calling. Do we fear pics of Andrew Jackson on fire or getting played. This is gambooooooling... Last- good posting hand.
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#38
10-03-2007, 12:27 AM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
to summarise my ramblings in this thread
The donk is scary but I think folding to this turn donk is weak given the potsize. Im yet to see an convincing argument for raising this turn and cant really make one myself that is coherent enough to put to e-paper as we appear to be already boned but cant be sure in a big pot. So that leaves the option of call and see what happens.... When I said they wil define their hands on the turn I mean that Im able to get away from my hand if it goes bet and reraise. [ QUOTE ] oh, don’t forgot the monsters [/ QUOTE ] dont worry...I wasnt...I havent chosen my words well in this thread. sigh. FWIW I called....
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#39
10-03-2007, 12:21 PM
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Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
I cant resist no longer...heres how it went down. why the [censored] do we bother getting reads. maybe he misread his hand for 56. lol.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Ozi (BB) UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, BTN folds, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, SB calls Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Ozi bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO caps</font>, SB calls, Ozi calls, UTG calls Turn: (14 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) <font color="red">SB bets</font>, Ozi calls, UTG calls, CO calls River: (18 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players) <font color="red">SB bets</font>, Ozi calls, UTG calls, CO folds Results: 21 BB Pot (0.5 BB Rake) Ozi showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and WON 20.5 BB (+15 BB NET) UTG mucked J9o (converter didnt show it but raw HH did) and LOST (-5.5 BB NET) SB showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (high card Ace) and LOST (-5.5 BB NET)
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