Rule of 2 and 4: If you call on the flop, must you call on the turn?

[orig!naL]

Ok say we have a hand similar to this:

SB: $21.50
BB: $21.45
UTG: $36.70
MP: $13.80
Ju5tin (CO): $25.00
BTN: $26.25

SB: $21.50
BB: $21.45
UTG: $36.70
MP: $13.80
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $26.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt Ad 9d(6 Players)

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds


Flop: ($1.95) 5d 9d Jh (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $6.45....

Assume only remaining D's as outs.

Given the rule of 4, we have ~36% (9x4) of hitting an out. Our pot odds (~2:1) tell us we need to hit an out 33.3% (1/3*100) of the time to be profitable.

Given this, it is profitable to call. <u>My question is: Using the rule of 4 provides you with the odds of hitting an out BY THE RIVER, so if we are calling a flop bet, we must call a turn bet correct?</u>

The rule of 4 seems a little odd if you are just going to fold when you don't hit an out on the turn.

Can someone please clear this up?

[orig!naL]

Anyone?

[jay_shark]

I recommend that you start thinking in terms of one street at a time . You should be using the 2x rule more often than not .

Using your example , you have about an 18% chance of hitting your outs on the turn but you're getting 2:1 pot odds . So if your opponent will not put in a single dime on the turn , then clearly calling is incorrect . If he bets another 6.45 on the turn every single time , then your true odds are about 16.35:4.95 ~3.3:1 and so you need to hit about 23% of the time . So calling is still incorrect .

Moral of the story is that it's usually incorrect to call a psb with a flush draw unless your opponent is extremely spewy . A few things need to be true . You need to assure yourself that if you hit , you will be payed well on the turn and river and that there is a good chance he is holding a strong hand .

[hitch1978]

Also, consider getting a deck with only 1 9d.

Basically, however you calculate your odds, if you are going to use a method that tells you your chance of improving with 2 cards, you can only apply it if the bet you are facing is putting either you or your opponent all-in. This is because otherwise, the call is not the price to see two cards, it is the price to see 1.

Better to evaluate the call against your chances of improving with one card to come, as that is all you are paying to see.

Also, push all-in for two shots at the pot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] :P

[RedSoxFan]

Was going to post the same question today-

If you call the PSB- you are getting ~2:1 on your money and is a safe call assuming no more betting. However, if you miss the turn, you likely will have to call another PSB to see river. This seems like -EV.

Assuming flush is only hand you have to win pot (only 9 outs), is a PSB an automatic fold? At what % of pot is calling +EV.

If you are the aggressor, is it best to PSB flush draws and OESD or to go less knowing you are going to miss getting it on tune ~80% of the time? There is fold equity. I know a lot of this is player dependent but any general thoughts? I tend to check/call when in early position so I don't have to pay too much to chase.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming flush is only hand you have to win pot (only 9 outs), is a PSB an automatic fold? At what % of pot is calling +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is where implied odds come into play. And implied odds need to know several things like: how big your stacks are (i.e. effective stack size to pot ratio), likelyhood of a turn bet and the size of such a bet, likelyhood of getting a bet out of villian if you hit your flush and likelyhood of losing to a redraw.

You can easily calculate the effective stack size and pot size. However, to calculate those likelyhoods, you need reads. You need to know what hand villain is likely holding. You need to know if he has that hand he is: a) going to bet the turn, b) going to pay you off (and how much) in the face of three flush cards on board.

This is a GREY area. You also have to consider simply moving all-in on the flop if you have the right size stack left. That board doesn't look too threatening and thus you have some fold equity.

Depending on your skill level and how well you can apply the concept of implied odds, I would suggest the following guidelines. This is for a heads-up pot.

1. It is much better if your draw is to the nut flush.

2. Generally, I would fold to a pot-sized bet. An exception might occur if my stack was about 3-4 times the size of the pot before that PSB. If you know a little about villain and the board doesn't look to bad, an all-in will be successful some of the time and you will win a showdown another part of the time. Those two winning situations will often add up to be +EV.

3. In the face of a half pot-sized bet, I would generally call with a deep stack. With a medium stack, I might consider raising with the intent of going all-in soon. With a short stack, I might just move right in there.

[Perestroika]

Nice post pantsonfire. Lock Thread!