LIve foxwoods 2/5

NoahL · #1 02-28-2007, 03:14 PM

Been playing for a few hours, wona few decent pots with no showdowns. I showed down twice in 4 hours, with trip queens (AQ) and KK. Neither was slow played.

5 limpers, I raise to 30 on the button with 45 suited. One caller from MP.
MP's stack size: Roughly 450. I have him easily covered.

Flop is ace 3 6.
MP checks, I bet 55. MP raises to 110. Minraise!

My thoughts were that he is doing this with a weak suited ace, having limped in MP. I didnt put him on 33 or 66. I chose to push, representing AK. He would have to call off 400 now. He clearly doesn't have AK, AQ.

I assume he folds all other aces and clearly calls with a3, ace6, 33, 66, AK, AQ.

How ugly is this?

capone0 · #2 02-28-2007, 03:22 PM

What's your description of MP? Is he lag? Obviously he can't be that great with the min-c/r. From my limited live experience and more online experience. A min c/r is usually a very strong hand. I would just call and reevaluate turn.

Blizzardbaum · #3 02-28-2007, 03:34 PM

villain never has air here and has A3/A6/66/33 100% of the time. since this is foxwoods 2/5, villain can even have 63 in this spot. this is an easy call of $55 with ~$250 in the middle, but I think pushing is bad here because you are getting paid off 100% of the time you make your hand on the turn and villain will never fold to a push in this spot.

fwiw, if you make a psb on the flop and get raised, then it becomes a push/fold situation. since you bet such a small amount on the flop and got minraised, calling with the intention of on any non 2/7 river.

NoahL · #4 02-28-2007, 03:41 PM

Previous hand with MP. About 5 orbits ago, I raised button to 30 with AK. BB just called and MP called with J9 suited. On a j 10 7 board, BB bet pot, MP min raised, I fold, BB shows KK, folds, MP shows J9. for top pair.....

I can't tell whether he thought he was winning or felt like playing a massive pot with top pair and a gutshot.

jmc999 · #5 02-28-2007, 03:52 PM

My noobie analysis:

450 stacks, 30 in preflop, pot ~70
You lead for 55 and get minraised to 110 -- pot is 235 or so, and you're getting 4.2:1 plus implied odds. I think calling and re-evaluating the turn is good. (310 left after we call)

Obviously we're going to the felt if he hit our straight.

Questions on strategy for the rest of the hand:
1. How much are we willing to call on the turn if he bets?
2. Are we willing to bet the turn if he checks (say $100) to set up a steal on the river? Or, shove if he checks?

Blizzardbaum · #6 02-28-2007, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Previous hand with MP. About 5 orbits ago, I raised button to 30 with AK. BB just called and MP called with J9 suited. On a j 10 7 board, BB bet pot, MP min raised, I fold, BB shows KK, folds, MP shows J9. for top pair.....

I can't tell whether he thought he was winning or felt like playing a massive pot with top pair and a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

this hand argues for not shoving in the original post. if he overvalues top pair type hands than we have every reason to expect getting paid when we make a straight and no reason to think he'll fold Ax enough of the time to make pushing oesd's profitable.

Bill King · #7 02-28-2007, 05:31 PM

we're missing some big piece of info here.. does he follow up aggression on the turn also?

i think there are a lot of things to consider before calling and re-evaluating since our hand has no improvements other than the straight we're drawing to.

i like shoving before calling and then folding to his turn shove.. b/c chances are floating later on is not going to work unless you put in your whole stack now and put him to a decision while you still have reasonable chance for improvement.

wdead · #8 02-28-2007, 05:53 PM

this guy went wild with J9 on a J107 board. He overvalues hands. You have little to no folding equity. Just call the flop.

NoahL · #9 02-28-2007, 05:53 PM

I could call the minraise, but then he'll bet out strong on the turn....I'm 100% sure if I hit my straight I get paid, but I'm also not sure if he calls the push on the flop.

I guess its cheaper to call the flop and get it cheaply, than risking 300 on the flop....

FireStorm · #10 02-28-2007, 05:55 PM

Just call the minraise, hope to bury your straight on the turn and stack him. Moving in is silly, you have zero fold equity. People in live games who minimum check raise love their hand and are going nowhere but the center of the felt with it. Blizzard is correct, you get his stack every single time you hit on the turn, so your reasons for calling are clear.

Villain can very easily have 66 or 33 here, I think your read in the hand is pretty far off. If he only calls with A6, A3, 33, 66, or a huge Ace, well, wouldn't that indicate to you that give the range of hands he can have on this board, he calls more than 75% of the time?