PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Preseason)

[Triumph36]

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Sluss:

bet on over/under for Giants wins at 5.5 - I'll take the over?

they don't all hate their coach, and NFL contracts aren't guaranteed, and NFL coaches are [censored] to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]The funny thing is that when I did the math I came up with 5 wins for the Giants. I usually only bet when I get a full game.

They all hate their coach is obvious hyperbole. They no longer listen well to their coach and the locker room is divided by it. If they all hated him they might be better off at least they would have something to rally around.

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fine - i'll set the line at 6?

I don't think the locker room is divided, nor do I think it's that big a deal if it is. Tiki Barber is gone, and although he's still trying to poison the Giants' locker room from TV studio, at least there will be no more anonymous comments about how everyone on the Giants is terrible.

[Sluss]

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Sluss:

bet on over/under for Giants wins at 5.5 - I'll take the over?

they don't all hate their coach, and NFL contracts aren't guaranteed, and NFL coaches are [censored] to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]The funny thing is that when I did the math I came up with 5 wins for the Giants. I usually only bet when I get a full game.

They all hate their coach is obvious hyperbole. They no longer listen well to their coach and the locker room is divided by it. If they all hated him they might be better off at least they would have something to rally around.

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fine - i'll set the line at 6?

I don't think the locker room is divided, nor do I think it's that big a deal if it is. Tiki Barber is gone, and although he's still trying to poison the Giants' locker room from TV studio, at least there will be no more anonymous comments about how everyone on the Giants is terrible.

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Avatar or Cash (I will admit I don't have much cash online)?

[Triumph36]

don't like an avatar bet when I know the Giants will suck anyway - it's a cruel joke on me for you to have a Jeremy Shockey avatar when the Eagles are in the NFC Championship game.

so i'd prefer cash - $50? $100?

[Sluss]

I'm willing to do $100 Giants under 6 wins.

[MCS]

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I think Atlanta is too low--I expect them to be significantly better than Tampa Bay and Detroit, and slightly better than Minnesota.

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Really? Um... why?

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Because I have more faith in Harrington than most do, I think the defense will be fine, I think Simms is a disaster, I think Detroit's D is horrendous, I don't believe in Tavaris Jackson although I root for him for some unknown reason, and I lived in Atlanta for five years and refuse to believe they're going to fall off THAT much without Vick.

I don't think the Falcons will make the playoffs, but I'm figuring 6-10, which would at least mean they weren't in the cellar.

[PokerFink]

MCS-

Fair enough. I agree with your points about Detroit's D and Tavaris, I just have this suspicion that Atlanta is going to be downright awful this year. I've been wrong before though.

FYI though, Simms isn't starting in Tampa, Garcia is.

[PokerFink]

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There is also a few paragraphs in the Chicago section explaining that quarterbacks who have hot starts and then fade (Romo, Grossman) rarely rebound much. They tend to be mediocre permanently.

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This seems to be based on next to nothing.

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seems to be based on correlation - i don't think FO is saying they're causally related.

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This is correct. FO does a lot of these correlation tables. We all know that correlation != causation, but if there are 14 quarterbacks who had similar seasons, and only 2 of them had good seasons the following year, that's cause for concern.

It's not as strong of a relationship as something like the 385 carry rule, but it's still a negative trend.

[PokerFink]

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yes, I am a Packers fan, and I am being completely serious. The packers did absolutely nothing to get better this offseason and let some players slip away that they shouldn't have. Please tell me which games in their first 8 you would put them as a favorite in.

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Their first half is more difficult with Philly and San Diego in there. They will start as home dogs against Philly and I imagine they will be a dog to New York even though I think they're better than them. But their first half also includes at Kansas City who is bad and at Minnesota who is bad; they should be favored in those.

Down the stretch they play Detroit twice, Oakland and Minnesota again. Favorites in all of those games. In St. Louis and in Dallas are very winnable road games, although I like Dallas a lot less than some people.

The prospectus gives them a mean win expectation of 9.5 which is second the NFC. I think that's being generous; they're not better than Chicago or New Orleans. But part of that high expectation is that the Prospectus thinks Chicago and San Diego will both decline far more than the public thinks. Green Bay seems like a 9-7 team to me which should be good enough for a wildcard spot.

[PokerFink]

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3.Cowboys- Tony Romo is the big question mark. If he is bad the Cowboys are in trouble.

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I think Romo is mediocre and I'm not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until I see otherwise. But you (and others) are, so as long as it comes with the Romo caveat I'm fine with this ranking.

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8.Tampa Bay I really like Tampa this year. Well I like them if they can fill in those holes on defense.

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How are they going to fill the holes? It's the same personnel as last year, except everyone is even older. Gaines will help, but probably won't replace Rice full time until next year. Their defense was 22nd last year and I see it getting worse before it gets better.

My eyes popped out of my head when I saw their win projection of 9.0 in the prospectus. Originally I considered moving them higher because of it, but decided that I flat disagreed with the book and kept them near the bottom. Many of the authors, apparently, agree with me and don't like their projection either.

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11.Washington: Get ready to get burned deep. That should be the rally cry of the Redskins secondary, which is by far the worst in the NFL in pass coverage.

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Shawn Springs is back which will help enormously. And I agree that pairing Landry with Taylor is [censored] dumb, but Landry has to be better than that bench scrub Vernon Fox that was starting last year, right?

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16.Giants: They lost their best offensive player, their defense is still weak and they all hate their coach. Could it get any worse, oh they are putting more pressure on Eli Manning.

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16th? Ouch.

Otherwise we mostly agree. And it's good to see some bets being made already =)

[SL__72]

You keep mentioning Rice. The Bucs released him a couple of months ago.