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#1
11-10-2007, 06:58 PM
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$1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t3000 with t300 antes (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com
UTG (t75615) UTG+1 (t55708) MP1 (t16602) MP2 (t94794) CO (t11235) Button (t59588) SB (t16836) Hero (t55960) Preflop: Hero is in BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to t10935 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, Hero calls t7935 Flop: (t25770) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) Turn: (t25770) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players) River: (t25770) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) I thought the pot odds were right for me to call. However, one guy at the table lol'd and said it was horrible call and, one said it was ok - just the cards were slightly under average to make the call. 
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#2
11-10-2007, 11:10 PM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
Maybe I'm retarded, but a 42o call for a 5th of your stack? Theres not many hands that's going to beat, not many at all.
Fold pf imo
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#3
11-10-2007, 11:36 PM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
You're supposed to call pretty wide there, but not that wide.
I wouldn't mind it if you had a bigger stack though.
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#4
11-11-2007, 01:12 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
It's a bad call because it represents too high a portion of your stack. Maybe if you had double or triple your stack you could do this.
Also, 42o is the second weakest hand possible Heads up, so that's why people were laughing. Now, it's likely you have to live cards to two overs, so you have a chance, just not enough to make up the odds. Yes, CO should be pushing any two cards, but it's unlikely those any two will be 23o.
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#5
11-11-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
It's very close.
In order to break even on the call you need to win 30.8% of the time. If villian is pushing with 100% of his hands you win 33.2%. If villian is pushing with the top 50% of his hands you win 31.2%. If villian is pushing with the top 25% of his hands you win 30.2% of the time. So I'd call or fold based upon if villian has been open pushing a lot, in the money considerations, and your percieved skill level against your opponents on this table (if they seem better than you then gambling here is better).
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#6
11-11-2007, 02:32 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
[ QUOTE ]
It's very close. In order to break even on the call you need to win 30.8% of the time. If villian is pushing with 100% of his hands you win 33.2%. If villian is pushing with the top 50% of his hands you win 31.2% . If villian is pushing with the top 25% of his hands you win 30.2% of the time. So I'd call or fold based upon if villian has been open pushing a lot, in the money considerations, and your percieved skill level against your opponents on this table (if they seem better than you then gambling here is better). [/ QUOTE ] That's poker in a nutshell. And people wonder why it's so hard to win MTT's.
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#7
11-11-2007, 02:57 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
[ QUOTE ]
It's very close. In order to break even on the call you need to win 30.8% of the time. If villian is pushing with 100% of his hands you win 33.2%. If villian is pushing with the top 50% of his hands you win 31.2%. If villian is pushing with the top 25% of his hands you win 30.2% of the time. So I'd call or fold based upon if villian has been open pushing a lot, in the money considerations, and your percieved skill level against your opponents on this table (if they seem better than you then gambling here is better). [/ QUOTE ] Is there an online calculator where I can do the math to figure this out? I was extraordinarily surprised to see 42o win 30% if villain pushes w/ top 25%... just doeson't make sense to me
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#9
11-11-2007, 03:21 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
Hand 0: 30.182% 29.77% 00.41% 169254079 2324890.50 { 4c2s }
Hand 1: 69.818% 69.41% 00.41% 394581068 2324890.50 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
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#10
11-11-2007, 07:31 AM
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Re: $1 MTT - 4h2d in BB was I right to call shorstack\'s all-in move?
Because of the antes, this is a close decision. I think the call is slightly wrong with 42o, but I think it is a call with 53o, which is only a couple of percent better. So, there isn't any reason to laugh at your play. If it was wrong, it probably was not wrong by a lot, and you got to see what the CO had.
The prize structures of tournaments favor survival, which generally means being a bit more conservative with calls than what the chip counts would suggest. However, this effect is much smaller when you are calling a tiny portion of your stack than when you are calling all-in, and in the latter case, it usually only increases your calling threashold by a couple of percent or less. So, the amount you need to win to make this call profitable in the long run is not much different from the nominal 7935/25770 ~ 30.8%. Side note: There is an irrational fear and loathing of having a short stack in tournaments. This hand helps to show that a short stack (here, almost 4 BB) can easily bet for value in late position, since the big blind is almost pot-committed with any two cards. In addition, the antes and small blind contribute a large amount of dead money. This means a short stack often gets a chance to get all-in as the equivalent of a 60-40 favorite or better.
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