25 NL KQs: River question

[Nick C]

The river is my worst street in limit, so I guess it might as well be my worst street in NL as well.

SB is 48/0/0.6 after 69. He hadn't really caught my attention beyond that.

UTG loved to min-raise preflop, but he's not really too involved in this hand, ultimately.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($18.82)
Hero ($56.21)
CO ($20.52)
Button ($27.84)
SB ($31.54)
BB ($31.86)
UTG ($14.90)
UTG+1 ($20.76)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $0.40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.25</font>, UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, CO folds, SB calls $2.75, UTG folds.

Turn: ($8.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, SB calls $6.

River: ($20.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks . . .


And now I can't think of anything he should have that beats me, unless it's specifically AdTd or Td9d or a set he decided to slowplay once I raised the flop. So I think I'm going to win.

At the same time, I can't figure out what worse hands he might have that he'll call with, because, well, I wouldn't call with very many worse hands here if I'd played them this way and gotten to this point. Which of course isn't the test, because Villain doesn't play like me.

I think Villain has a busted flush draw, actually, and I suppose a busted flush draw could contain the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. But probably his range isn't really quite that narrow . . .

Anyway, what should I do on the river here? He's got $22 left, and I have him covered.

[orange]

$15 and call a push. I think villan has either a Q or a busted diamond draw. His gaybets make me think FD more. He may have caught up and pay you off if he hit a pair with his FD (ie K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x or whatever).

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
At the same time, I can't figure out what worse hands he might have that he'll call with, because, well, I wouldn't call with very many worse hands here if I'd played them this way and gotten to this point. Which of course isn't the test, because Villain doesn't play like me.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are a lot of worse hands that will call a bet here. Villain is 48/0. That usually means he'll play pretty much any two suited, any two connected, and most (single) broadways like J2o. So Villain could have 43, Q3, Q4, QJ, K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], all of which would pay you off. And his AF (of .6) is consistent with him check-calling all the way down. Moreover, he may call with other Qs just to look you up (rare, yes, but it happens).

[CloudFrog]

I get the feeling he isn't going to check raise you here. Based on the fact that he was chasing the entire time, he probably had a busted FD, in which case you could make a near pot-sized bet...maybe $14-18. He likely caught a pair that isn't best or second best, so in this case I wouldn't expect a call.

Your other option is to make a small bet that he might call with a worse hand (pair of jacks). He's obviously shown that he doesnt have trips or a miracle straight, or he likely would have bet the river. Regardless, if it were me, I'd make a smaller bet ($2-$5) to try to extract as much as possible and HOPE for a RR, though, the best you'll likely get is a call.