Too aggro 3rd/4th?

[Bremen]

Seat 3's bet on 4th means he has the best board.

I know 7CSFAP recommends reraising a completion if you have a kicker higher than the opponents board. However I have always felt that PS 2/4 was too tightly structured for this... does the dead K make a difference?

7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.75 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (7.25 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

5th Street - (6.63 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (8.63 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (10.63 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (12.63 BB)

[Andy B]

There are several differences between this game and the kinds of games that 7CS4AP is geared towards. The ante is proportionally lower. The rake is proportionally higher. And players are generally more likely to have what they are representing. I think third is pretty close among your three options, but I think folding is probably best. Not that I do it or anything.

The raise on fourth seems pretty spewy. You almost can't have the best hand, and no one is folding.

But to raise and then hit like that--nothing like it, is there?

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
I think third is pretty close among your three options

[/ QUOTE ] I'm a little surprised by that as I assumed flat calling would just be terrible.

4th was probably taking my reads a little too far. I know the bettor probably has nothing but they both still have alot of overcards...

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think third is pretty close among your three options

[/ QUOTE ] I'm a little surprised by that as I assumed flat calling would just be terrible.

4th was probably taking my reads a little too far. I know the bettor probably has nothing but they both still have alot of overcards...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think in this game with its low ante you can muck to a king raising up front and not feel too bad about it. He likely has kings or something else that is ahead of you so it is better to wait for a spot where you are a clear favorite. My understanding of this play is that it is a strong move when there is enough dead money overlay in the pot to make up for the % behind in the hand you are AND you can play for the pot heads up.

[Andy B]

Not terrible. Suboptimal perhaps, but not terrible. Even with a couple of clubs gone, the live s00ted Ace makes your hand somewhat more attractive multi-way. You'd prefer that the hand be heads-up, but raising might not even do that for you anyway. I do think folding is best.

[greyhawke54]

Ok the way I read 7CSFAP this is the type of situation to raise on 3rd in. You are trying to knock out hands better than yours behind you by making them call 2 bets cold. By getting HU with the overcard you are in a coin flip even more so if the opp has a dead cards. I also understand that certain other conditions need to exist to perform this play, such as the table or players behind you have to be on the tight side and capable of folding. You also need to have a tight image. If these conditions do not exist then you should lean towards folding. Or am I misunderstanding what I read? I also do not like the raise on 4th.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok the way I read 7CSFAP this is the type of situation to raise on 3rd in. You are trying to knock out hands better than yours behind you by making them call 2 bets cold. By getting HU with the overcard you are in a coin flip even more so if the opp has a dead cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask yourself this - what is the villain's hand range, and what percentage of this hand range are you behind? Remember equity analysis isn't the best way to determine this, because you will rarely get past 5th street and often you will find a fold on 4th. Also re-read the book so you have a better understanding why so many are advocating a fold or at the very least a call rather than an isolating raise.

PS: In hold'em I make mental notes all the time when someone abuses the isolation move, those opponents are natural ATMs in the long run.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
There are several differences between this game and the kinds of games that 7CS4AP is geared towards. The ante is proportionally lower. The rake is proportionally higher. And players are generally more likely to have what they are representing. I think third is pretty close among your three options, but I think folding is probably best. Not that I do it or anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, I muck this on 3rd... are you advocating a call? I dont play Stud as often, what am I missing here?

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[greyhawke54]

7csfap says to raise here to try and get it heads up. This is how it runs against 2 over pairs on 3rd. Because with the over card to the opps suspected pair you are nearly even money

7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 4c 4d 172083 34.42 327913 65.58 4 0.00 0.344
8s Kc Kd 188047 37.61 311936 62.39 17 0.00 0.376
Ts 8c Th 139851 27.97 360132 72.03 17 0.00 0.280

And this is how it runs against 1 opp

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 4c 4d ac - kd 8s kc
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 4c 4d 218975 43.80 281020 56.20 5 0.00 0.438
8s Kc Kd 281020 56.20 218975 43.80 5 0.00 0.562

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]

7csfap says to raise here to try and get it heads up. This is how it runs against 2 over pairs on 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your taking this a little too liberally. Re-read page #43 & #44. There is still the T left to act behind you, and your deception will be lost within 2 streets even though a K is dead on 3rd street. The villain has a very wide hand range and almost his entire range has the hero crushed unless he hits his re-draws on 4th.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]