WSOP Main Event Bubble - Theoretical Situation

TwistedEcho · #1 08-03-2007, 06:51 PM

So one person left before we are all in the money, the entire table goes allin, fold AA in the BB?!!!?

Ok hopefully my poor joke hasn't scared off too many good posters. Its getting close to the WSOP ME bubble, and our table consists of weak tight nits who all want to cash, with the exception of the table chipleader and bully, who is a well-known European pro.

Blinds are 2k/4k/500 and European bully is playing really aggressive and running the table, we have played back at him once last orbit, when it is announced we are now playing Hand for Hand, with 10 people left to bust.

Stack-sizes range from 20k-100k for the nits, we have 150k and the European pro has around 450k. We are sitting on the right of the pro.

As soon as H4H is announced, the pro raises to 150k, we fold our random hand and he picks up the blinds and antes. Same for the next hand, and the next. The fourth time he does it UTG, and we notice he is doing it blind.

So that's the situation, 10 people left to bubble and a really tight nitty table which the European pro has decided to take advantage of. Its apparently that the pro is going to just make it 150k every hand, putting the whole table allin until the bubble bursts. This is probably fine at this table since everyone (except ourselves) is scared money trying to cash.

So knowing he has a random hand, knowing that overcalls if we call are going to be ridiculously tight (its very possible they fold everything except AA if we call the pro before they act), what range are you calling with preflop?

This situation occurred this year at the WSOP (except i wasn't at the table) and our vegas house was pretty split on how loose we are calling preflop.

Thoughts?

Cornell Fiji · #2 08-03-2007, 07:12 PM

at the ME about how long (how many hands) will it take for 10 players to be eliminated on the cash bubble?

stealthmunk · #3 08-03-2007, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So one person left before we are all in the money, the entire table goes allin, fold AA in the BB?!!!?

Ok hopefully my poor joke hasn't scared off too many good posters. Its getting close to the WSOP ME bubble, and our table consists of weak tight nits who all want to cash, with the exception of the table chipleader and bully, who is a well-known European pro.

Blinds are 2k/4k/500 and European bully is playing really aggressive and running the table, we have played back at him once last orbit, when it is announced we are now playing Hand for Hand, with 10 people left to bust.

Stack-sizes range from 20k-100k for the nits, we have 150k and the European pro has around 450k. We are sitting on the right of the pro.

As soon as H4H is announced, the pro raises to 150k, we fold our random hand and he picks up the blinds and antes. Same for the next hand, and the next. The fourth time he does it UTG, and we notice he is doing it blind.

So that's the situation, 10 people left to bubble and a really tight nitty table which the European pro has decided to take advantage of. Its apparently that the pro is going to just make it 150k every hand, putting the whole table allin until the bubble bursts. This is probably fine at this table since everyone (except ourselves) is scared money trying to cash.

So knowing he has a random hand, knowing that overcalls if we call are going to be ridiculously tight (its very possible they fold everything except AA if we call the pro before they act), what range are you calling with preflop?

This situation occurred this year at the WSOP (except i wasn't at the table) and our vegas house was pretty split on how loose we are calling preflop.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

66+ KT+A7+

for me.

p.s. it isn't theoretical as it happened this year LDO.

TwistedEcho · #4 08-03-2007, 07:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
at the ME about how long (how many hands) will it take for 10 players to be eliminated on the cash bubble?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im really not sure, i'd guess about 20-30. This year the bubble ended in 14 hands though.

djk123 · #5 08-03-2007, 07:26 PM

Maybe 44+,JTs,Q9s+,QTo+,A2s+,A6o+,K7s+,K9o+

I think it's important that if we double up we will have euro dude slightly covered, allowing us to pwn the bubble ourselves

#6 08-03-2007, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
66+ KT+A7+

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that is definitely looser than me. I'm probably calling 88+, KQ, A9s+, ATo+.

djk123 · #7 08-03-2007, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So one person left before we are all in the money, the entire table goes allin, fold AA in the BB?!!!?

Ok hopefully my poor joke hasn't scared off too many good posters. Its getting close to the WSOP ME bubble, and our table consists of weak tight nits who all want to cash, with the exception of the table chipleader and bully, who is a well-known European pro.

Blinds are 2k/4k/500 and European bully is playing really aggressive and running the table, we have played back at him once last orbit, when it is announced we are now playing Hand for Hand, with 10 people left to bust.

Stack-sizes range from 20k-100k for the nits, we have 150k and the European pro has around 450k. We are sitting on the right of the pro.

As soon as H4H is announced, the pro raises to 150k, we fold our random hand and he picks up the blinds and antes. Same for the next hand, and the next. The fourth time he does it UTG, and we notice he is doing it blind.

So that's the situation, 10 people left to bubble and a really tight nitty table which the European pro has decided to take advantage of. Its apparently that the pro is going to just make it 150k every hand, putting the whole table allin until the bubble bursts. This is probably fine at this table since everyone (except ourselves) is scared money trying to cash.

So knowing he has a random hand, knowing that overcalls if we call are going to be ridiculously tight (its very possible they fold everything except AA if we call the pro before they act), what range are you calling with preflop?

This situation occurred this year at the WSOP (except i wasn't at the table) and our vegas house was pretty split on how loose we are calling preflop.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

66+ KT+A7+

for me.

p.s. it isn't theoretical as it happened this year LDO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This range doesnt make much sense since you are leaving out hands that have the same equity as 66 kt and a7

TwistedEcho · #8 08-03-2007, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe 44+,JTs,Q9s+,QTo+,A2s+,A6o+,K7s+,K9o+

I think it's important that if we double up we will have euro dude slightly covered, allowing us to pwn the bubble ourselves

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty key i feel, the sooner we stop him the better, since we will be able to steal blinds too. However i'm really unsure how loose i call.

When we discussed this hand in vegas, myself and mig.com were in favour of calling with 55%+ edge knowing that once we call him with K7s, if we double he won't be shoving everyhand, and will have to give up some pots for us.

Two other housemates wanted to wait for a bigger edge since hes going to be pushing every hand blind for the next X amount of hands, and we don't need to gamble so soon. They also factored bubbling as a bigger factor for not taking 55% edges.

djk123 · #9 08-03-2007, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
66+ KT+A7+

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that is definitely looser than me. I'm probably calling 88+, KQ, A9s+, ATo+.

[/ QUOTE ]

???? The guy has a random hand.

#10 08-03-2007, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
66+ KT+A7+

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that is definitely looser than me. I'm probably calling 88+, KQ, A9s+, ATo+.

[/ QUOTE ]

???? The guy has a random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's really a risk aversion question too, you have to realize. I was saying what I would call with. What we SHOULD call with is just a math problem.