NL25: Can I fold this set?

[tiltn'noob]

No real reads on villain, but he's been minraising and minbetting into large pots.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($28.50)
MP1 ($26.90)
MP2 ($7.25)
MP3 ($15)
CO ($13.10)
Button ($26.35)
SB ($25)
BB ($9.70)
Hero ($24.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls $0.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($1.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($3.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, Button calls $3.

River: ($9.85) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $21.6 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?

[Bigfoot]

Fold. Based on the board and the fact 3 kings are accounted for, the only hands value shoving that river that you conceivably beat are 98 and 78. He has to be a moron or on complete air a lot to make a call correct.

[Larude]

I would raise more preflop. I would also bet a little more on the flop. On the turn I would checkraise (pretend you took a stab at the pot and it failed); if he has anything of a decent hand and he is a littlebit aggressive he will bet. River is difficult. I would have made a blockbet because we only fear a hand with a T. I don't know how loose he is but he is pretending a hand like KT (toppair on flop which picks up double gutshot), QT or 8T (made straight on the turn). Your check indicates weakness... He knows you don't have the T +; if he has the T and knows you don't have a great hand wouldn't he just valuebet? Or is he known for overbetting pots with bigger hands... Very difficult all in all, I would lean towards folding.

[A_C_Slater]

I would blocking bet for $6 on the river/fold to a raise. It would require a lot of audacity on his part to shove without a ten once you do that. He probably doesn't have reads on you either and he probably won't think a 25NL player will fold on river after betting all 3 streets. But once you check the river he is either thinking "Oh boy he's scared I have a ten, omgz all in make him fold!!" or if he actually has a ten "hmmm he must have some kind of hand, but he fears the 4str8 and I have a ten. I don't think he's folding AA/KK/AK no matter what at 25NL so I'll over push for value and stack a donk."


As played I honestly don't know what to do. It is indeed a tough spot, at least to me.

[KurtSF]

That's a gross river card. As played, you can fold.

In terms of bet-sizing, preflop I go with $1. At least $1.50 on the flop. And I lead the river.

The river card is so sick. What a waste. But a single card can now beat you, and he has to be on air like 40% of the time to make the call worth it. With so little invested I think its fold &amp; reload.

[A_C_Slater]

I forgot to mention that a blocking bet will also extract value from two pairs.

[jhill3535]

I think he is bluffing (no 10) at least 50% of the time here with no read. If the player is good he probably makes this play occassionally with QT, but I think he value bets just a T more often.

You are getting 3-2 on your money, and it is a tough spot, so it probably really doesn't matter much in the long run what you do here. I probably call, just for the fact that I am pretty certain that if he is paying attention he can be pretty certain that Hero doesn't have a Ten here.

[Jay.Yang]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot to mention that a blocking bet will also extract value from two pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think the key is to continue bet out on River (I would also bet $6 or so). Two pairs and lower sets might call you on this scared board. And you can feel happier to fold when he shove to your bet on River.

[threads13]

I let this one go, but it is close. I would think a good player wouldn't push a T here though(although I think a big bet is called for).

[Gordon Scott]

I think villains range is all over this hand and I put him on 9T or TJ. As most have said raise more and bet more on the flop and turn. I like blocking the river for 5 or 6.

GS