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#1
03-12-2007, 12:28 AM
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Money management - when to move up
Short background: Been playing poker for the last 3 yrs. only with occasional betting on live TV games...
 Due to boredom from cards (although I still make a very healthy living from it), started betting more, which I used to do before the poker boom.ATM I flat bet 1% of my sports betting dedicated bankroll on each selection. Odds mostly in the (-130 to +130 region). Have been running hotter than hell during the last 3 weeks and made +45u on ~150 selections. Since I haven't updated my roll sheet during that time span, I find myself with the option to increase amount bet per unit by 50% now. Is it wise to increase the volume by that much when I'm basically expecting a downswing shortly? I know from poker that I wouldn't go up in limits easily when running hot for a while, cos that's usually when you become less attentive and are due for 10 cracked pocket rockets anyway. VaRiAnCe is a nasty bitch. Although this would seem just like moving up in poker from 10/20 to 15/30 with players of the same skill involved?! What's my best play in this situation when sample size is still way too small? a) Play more hands, lucky fish. b) Move up where they respect your raises. 
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#4
03-12-2007, 01:23 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] wrong forum [/ QUOTE ] Err... I didn't wanna go to BBV with this since this is def. no brag. [/ QUOTE ] Having such a poor grasp of math and statistics is a big time beat.
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#5
03-12-2007, 01:32 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
Thank you for your opinion, Thremp.
Unfortunately -I've mostly skipped my statistics classes in uni and they usually weren't about money management. Fortunately - They usually were enough for me to come by in life without a proper 9-5 job. See, it's not all about proper education, but thanks anyway.
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#6
03-12-2007, 03:12 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
Gambler's Fallacy
Seriously though, if you're "expecting" a downswing in the near future, wouldn't it be better to just not bet at all? You've got to move past this line of reasoning. Personally, I modify my unit size every single day, according to my bankroll. While it may not make a whole lot of difference, I like to think that every bit of precision helps. But this may seem unreasonable to some, so just do whatever works, whether it's a certain timeframe or a certain target bankroll.
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#8
03-12-2007, 03:15 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
Calm, i do the same thing. Every day, I make my bets 3% of my bankroll.
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#9
03-12-2007, 03:17 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
I say every day, I just deposited into another site therefore having more money available, so that is my new strategy.
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#10
03-12-2007, 04:19 AM
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Re: Money management - when to move up
Alright, actually I didn't think this was such a terribly funny post, but there will always be someone whose MM and gambling theory doesn't suck as bad as mine. And that's okay, so props to you.
I promise to never bother you with this useless crap again and just post random picks. Thanks again.
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