Theory Situation

[TheFoxNL]

this is just theory it didnt actually happened but i was just wondering what you would do in such a situation

Sunday Million

1000 pay 1015 left

you just lost a huge pot having youre aces cracked by a sligtly shorter stack
you are in the SB with 2BB left behind
button is solid player and you only seen him show down good cards but has been stealing some pots from button and CO

everybody folds to button who raises 4xBB
you find 1: TT 2: AJs 3: AQoff

what do you do with either of these hands ?
do you wait just to get in the money ?
or do you call and hope you double up but you risk ending out the money ?

if you fold these what hands do you call with ?

EDIT**

yes there are antes and the first money is just a little bit more then buy in -+$250 next payed wouldnt be much better

[lemming]

No antes? Never played Sunday Million, therefore my question: payout to place 1000?

If payout is decent and structure is only few percent more to places 9xx, I think I'm folding this one out, even if it sux [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If payout sux a bit (slightly more than buy-in), I'm calling all 3 hands, depending on reads... None of these if he's nitty imo... (you only said he's "solid") But as in solid-aggressive, I'm probably calling all 3...

[kurtkatt]

personally i´d call all three, im expecting to have an edge against villains range.

We will have ~7bb if we win. hey thats plenty with an whole round to find us a spot to get 9bb or 14-17bb. AND then...we roll baby...hehe

my argument being that this is not a situation where dubbling up won´t make a difference and because of it we shouldnt take a "fold to money line" here which probably is more directly +ev.

Probably consider the probability of bb coming along though.

and for the mathpeople, with payout structure, how far do we have to get the times we win to make a gambling line more profitable?

[lemming]

Hm, I'm at work so no pokerstove... But if we can get a range for villain, assuming BB not calling, we can figure a way to compare to Buy-Ins...

Let's say we're about 60% over Villain's Range, and payout structure is around 1.5 Buy-Ins for 1000. Assuming we can fold into that place and also assuming, if we win, we can move up to ranks 800 on average (that's what, 3 Buy-ins?) and more with a probability of around 80% (considering ourself a good solid player). (edit: this is a generous number with 7BBs... But you get my point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Then we can state that we'd have
1.5 Buy-ins compared to 0.6*0.8*3~1.44 Buy-ins...
Which is around the same... Taking into account, that we can make much more Buy-ins while moving higher, gambling is definitely +EV if these assumptions make any sense [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I was just having fun with this idea, it might be total crap math, dunno ^^

[namespace]

2BB left -- I insta call with a range much much wider than this.

[Soulman]

Game theory is not my strongest suit or interest, but I'm pretty sure instacalling with a wide range is wrong here.

[TheFoxNL]

how wide would youre range be then ?
i can hardly think of a wider range thats EV+ here against a Solid player who only steals once and a while..

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
how wide would youre range be then ?
i can hardly think of a wider range thats EV+ here against a Solid player who only steals once and a while..

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure, really. There's a pretty big difference between +cEV and +$EV here though. By doubling up, you'll be up to 5 BBs, and still have a huge chance of going out. SOmeone really good post pls.

[namespace]

My thinking is that we won't be able to fold into the money and we'll have to shove before we hit the BB next orbit.

Already our 2xbb means absolutely nothing so we'll be getting called by all sorts of weird ranges if we shove from the button or CO next orbit.

Here we will probably end up heads up against the button who has been known to steal. However, even though I call with all the hands mentioned above I'd rather be calling with 78 than AJ because I don't think villains range is as loose as some might think. He knows we're shoving wide here so he probably isn't raising too terribly wide.

I think AJ has a decent change of being dominated but with 25% of my stack sitting in the pot, I'm calling.

[Soulman]

Tightish range for villain who steals sometimes:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.157% 44.82% 00.34% 442046056 3334622.00 { 22+, K9s+, Q9s+, T9s, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 54.843% 54.50% 00.34% 537571804 3334622.00 { AJs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.395% 62.92% 00.47% 655077608 4919522.00 { 22+, K9s+, Q9s+, T9s, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 36.605% 36.13% 00.47% 376164180 4919522.00 { 87s }


Yeah, 87s sucks way more. If we fold here, we're obviously not shoving from the button/CO.

I don't play the Million enough to know if 15 people go out in one orbit, seems pretty likely to me. Also, this hand will depend somewhat on the BB's stack and looseness - you might get another player in here, he's getting fine odds to call if he's got a big stack and button is big as well. Obviously you like it if he resteals with a standard range.