1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

[dmoney416]

Yesterday was rough at 1-3. Niagara and Utah St. were tough ones.

Tonight:
South Alabama +14 (1 unit)
Hofstra +11 (1 unit)
Bradley/Providence Over 152 (0.5 units)

Got these at The Greek when they were released (with the exception of the total).

[MicroBob]

Think South Alabama is lousy.
I'm on SYR on that one.

[dmoney416]

GL Bob

Davidson (+8) over Maryland (1.5 units)

Davidson has only lost by this margin twice this season, @Michigan and @Duke, and this was before they really rounded into form.

Offensively, Davidson can score with Maryland, as each team allows about 80 points per game. Maryland shoots slightly better from the field, and both teams shoot very well from 3-pt range. Davidson is also ver good from the line, shooting over 75% (compared to Maryland's 69.9%). Maryland, despite its efficiency on offense, can be sloppy at times. They average 15.8 turnovers per game compared to Davidson 14.5. Also, Marylans tends to dominate a game when they control the boards. Davidson, despite not being really big inside, is among the nation's leaders in rebounds at 38.4 and a +5.9 margin.

Both teams give about about the same amount of points per game, with Maryland having the slight advantage in FGand 3-pt FG defense. However, as long as Davidson can neutralize Maryland on the boards, they should be fine.

Davidson is a very balanced team, with four players averaging double figures, led by Curry at over 21 per game. Point guard Jason Richards averages 7.6 assists per game and has a 2.4-1 assist to turnover ratio. Sander and Meno take care of business inside, averaging a combined 15 rebounds per game. Each of the top four scorers also shoots at least 73% from the FT line, which is also very encouraging.

Also, Maryland has been inconsistent at times this season, and you have to wonder whether or not they can simply turn the switch back on after their horrid performance against Miami. This goes down to the wire.

Maryland 80
Davidson 78

[dmoney416]

Holy Cross/Southern Illinois Under 109.5 (1 unit)

Southern Illnois:
Pace: 315, 325
Offensive Efficiency: 133, 86
Defensive Efficiency: 24, 14

Holy Cross:
Pace: 305, 294
Offensive Efficiency: 175, 177
Defensive Efficiency: 6, 47

Here we have two teams that are both among the 30 or 40 slowest-paced teams in the nation and two of the top 30 teams in terms of defensive efficiency. This is really a recipe for an under. I have seen So. IIl play, and they guard unlike most teams. They are relentless throughout the duration of the shot clock, and they need to be since they are apt to go on unexpected scoring droughts.

I won't too much stock into stats here, but both teams average about 63-43 points a game and each team gives up 57 points per game. Southern Illinois has already held 8 opponents under 50 points this year, and none of these teams play as slowly as Holy Cross does. there won't be many possessions in this game, and both teams may only get into the low 40s in terms of shots attempted.

Southern Illnois 51
Holy Cross 47

[dmoney416]

Pennsylvania/Texas A&M Over 136 (1 unit)

Texas A&M:
Pace: 214, 209
Offensive Efficiency: 8, 8
Defensive Efficiency: 3, 8

Pennsylvania:
Pace: 111, 71
Offensive Efficency: 49, 102
Defensvie Efficiency: 81, 117

I think A&M gets 80 points here. A&M is slightly slower than the average team, while Penn is faster. However, while you may not be able to tell by the stats, Penn defense is atrocious.

A&M averages 76 per game, but they only give 59 per game. However, they have showed that they are willing to run with the faster-paced big 12 teams. In their last 10 games, they have had some shootouts along with some low-scoring contests. These shootouts have come against the faster, defensively challenged teams. 94-78 vs Missouri, 96-98 @Texas, 97-87 vs. Baylor, and 100-82 vs. Texas are some of the examples.

Penn scores about 74 per game (deflated by playing in the Ivy), and they give up 67.5 per game. It is pretty easy to have that kind of defensive average when you are playing Princeton, Brown, Cornell, and Dartmouth for the majority of your conference schedule. Also, despite playing these slow-paced teams, Penn still put up points in conference, scoring under 70 only six times (and scoring over 80 four times). For a better gauge of Penn's defense, lets look at their non-conference:

They gave up 78 @Syracuse, 74 vs. Florida Gulf Coast, 66 vs Monmouth (another slow-paced team), 99 vs. Villanova, 77 vs. Fordham, 78 vs. Illinois-Chi, 94 @Seton Hall, 102 @North Carolina, 92 @La Salle, and 84 vs. St. Josephs.

Lookin at these numbers, you have to think that one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country can get 80. A&M shoots 50% from the field, 42% from 3, and 72% from the FT line. Let's see if the Quakers can stop them.

Texas A&M 81
Pennsylvania 64

Also, some O/U trends for the Penn/A&M match-up:

Pennsylvania
Over is 4-0 in Quakers last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Quakers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-1 in Quakers last 6 neutral site games.
Over is 5-1-1 in Quakers last 7 non-conference games.
Over is 5-1 in Quakers last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Quakers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Quakers last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 8-3 in Quakers last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.


Texas A&M
Over is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

[MyTurn2Raise]

just going to throw my one pick in here that I have so far

BYU ML v Xavier bet 2u to win 2.4u
Xavier cannot match the size that BYU will bring

[murphstahoe]

Murph's Tahoe 1st round NCAA Pix.

Gonzaga/Indiana under 142
Davidson +7 -105 (intertops)
OSU/Cent Con over 125.5 (WSEX)
TAMU -13.5
Vandy -3.5
Wazzu -6.5
Illini/VaTech over 117.5
Purdue +2.5
Creighton +1.5
USC -1.5

A lot of action there. My favorites are in order...

Creighton - Nevada distraction factor, NOT the injury. Injuries often see the team missing a player step it up (this trend is very big in the NBA regular season FYI). But with the shitstorm surrounding Fox, and the excuse factor because NV is whining about *how* their player got injured... I see Creighton winning this one.

Illini/VaTech Over. VaTech is 198th in the country in rebounding. Pruitt will be good for 25, and frankly I hope Weber uses my most disliked Illini player - Brock - who is a rebounding machine. That will also keep the game close which is good for a lot of free throw parade points.

Purdue. Carl Landry is Da Bomb. They aren't deep enough to beat top notch teams. Arizona is not one of those teams.

Props
UCLA Yes Sweet 16 -270
Memphis Yes Sweet 16 -220

[dmoney416]

Myturn, I really like BYU as well. I will most likely add it tomorrow night. Gl during the tourney.

murph, I like the majority of your plays excluding Cregihton and maybe Wazzu. No real opinion on the Illni over. Aprreciate the input and write-ups.

North Texas/Memphis Over 145 (1 unit)

Memphis:
Pace: 49, 69
Offensive Efficiency: 18, 25
Defensive Efficiency: 2, 9

North Texas:
Pace: 55, 49
Offensive Efficiency: 101, 208
Defensive Efficiency: 125, 178

Both of these teams like to run. UNT has scored under 70 points only eight times this season. Memphis has scored under 70 only five times this season. UNT averages 76.2 points per game while Memphis averages nearly 80. UNT gives up 72 while Memphis gives up 62.

Memhpis' defensive numbers, in my opinion are inflated by playing the many slow-paced teams in the CUSA. Central Florida (pace: 229, 264), Tulsa (pace: 161, 197), Southern Miss (pace: 163, 201), UAB (pace: 210, 231), and SMU (pace: 297, 317) are some of the culprits. UTEP and Houston are the only real offensive threats in the CUSA. Tulane and Marshall play fast, but both teams struggle to score regardless of who they are playing.

Memphis will score at will and should do the majority of damage when it comes to this total anyway.

Memphis 87
North Texas 64

[dmoney416]

I feel enough has been made about the LBSU/Tennessee Over and the NMSU/Texas Over, so I will skip to my last game. If you would like me to go over them as well, please let me know.

Wright St./Pittsburgh Under 120.5 (1 unit)

Pittsburgh:
Pace: 296, 300
Offennsive Efficiency: 20, 11
Defensive Efficiency: 79, 26

Wright St.:
Pace: 308, 289
Offensive Efficiency: 155, 142
Defensive Efficiency: 77, 71

Each of these teams are among the 40 slowest-paced teams in the nation. Wright St., according to the numbers, is more effective defensively than offensively. I expect Pitt's length to be really trouble Wright St as Wood (19.8 ppg) is the team's only consistent scorer. The team's 2nd leading scorer, Duggins (8.9 ppg) is almost exclusively a three-point shooter. He shoots 35% from three, but only 37% overall. If Wood lacks scoring support in this game, Wright St. could struggle to get 50.

Wright St. only averages 64 per game, while Pitt averages 71 per game. Pitt's average is somewhat a product of the non-conference schedule, as Pitt was under 70 in 11 of their 19 conference games. Both teams are very solid defensively, as Wright St. gives up only 61.6 and Pitt gives up 62.4 with the majority of these games coming against Big East competition. Wright St, while talented, does not have the depth to put up a whole lot of points here.

I see this much like the S Ill/HC game, where the raw numbers may add up to an over, but the pace is what will force this game under. In fact, Wright St. may have to cut possessions even more if they hope to have a shot down the stretch. Wright St. has only given up 70 or more in eight of their 32 games this season. In fact they have held their opponents under 60 in over half of their games this season (17 of 32).

Pittsburgh 61
Wright St. 51

That's it for the write-ups. Hope they helped.

I may add a couple of games throughout the next couple of days depending on how things go.

[MicroBob]

I'm the squareist of the squares. Some of these are my picks and others are my leans and I got pushed over the edge by Fezzik's endorsement.
One or two are Fezzik only.


Miami, Ohio +9 (line has moved to 8 so evidently I'm not the only one)
ORU/WSU O121
Bel/GT O124
Wright St +9.5 (bet this one BEFORE Fezzik endorsed it)
LOU -5.5 (was leaning pre-Fezzik endrosement)
Davidson +7
VCU +6.5


Leaning MEM -18.
CConn +21 is actually tempting me too.
Same for EKU +27.5.


Definitely don't like the BYU pick that seems to be so popular.
Xavier is a pretty good team and this is very close to a home game for them having to travel a whopping 60 mins or so to Lexington whereas BYU is trekking all the way to the eastern time-zone. X fans can get pretty crazy and the crowd will definitely be on their side. Not sure how hostile the environment will be though.