NL5 Flopped Set, strange Preflop-Aggressor, push in spite of read?

RoyalFarmer · #1 09-19-2007, 11:25 AM

NL5 at Partypoker.

I have no stats or reads on my opponents. They seemed to be solid and didn't make any stupid moves.

All participants are fullstacks (5 Dollars).

Unfortunately I don't have the HH anymore, but I hope it's understandable.

UTG+1 raises to 0.16 (4x BB)

Everybody folds to me in middle position, I look at a pair of eights and call.
Everybody except the small blind folds, who calls as well.

Pot: 0.50 Dollars

Flop comes:

2d 8h Kh giving me mid-set.

Small blind donks 0.20, and the preflop-aggressor just calls. I raise to 0.6 (maybe too little).
Small blind calls and suddenly UTG raises to a total of 1 Dollar.
Pot is now 2,90.

At this point I felt like, woooow, how can UTG hold anything else than two Kings?! But I've flopped the second nuts, and that's exactly what I was looking for preflop.
So my question is, can I fold or do I have to push in spite of my read (who was really strong, instinctly)?

The only other hand I could put him on would be AA, but he would have played it really strange.

My english might be bad, since I'm a german. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Comments please.

kayaker · #2 09-19-2007, 01:04 PM

OK, first off, it's going to be really rare to find a full table of solid players at NL5. I think you are overestimating them.

Second, you got exactly what you wanted. Villain could have a wide variety of hands, including AQh, AK or A8, all of which you have beat. The big concern here is the min-re-raise. That screams big hand after cold calling the SB. With that, I narrow him to five hands: AA, KK, AK, AQh and 22. You're ahead of everything other than KK.

Push. If he has KK, I reload and take note of how he played it. If he has AQh, pushing here makes it so he has to make a mistake to call you. Anything less and you're pricing him in.

Folding a set here is a very strong (or VERY weak) play. As NL5 has more than it's share of monkeys, I don't know that I could ever do that here. Especially with no reads.

AlexB182 · #3 09-19-2007, 01:15 PM

You can not NOT shove here...

BotOnTilt · #4 09-19-2007, 01:20 PM

The only time I folded a set in NL5 was when there was a 4-flush on turn and villain pushed. I don't think I ever regretted not folding a set, even though I got stacked a time or two.

RoyalFarmer · #5 09-19-2007, 04:26 PM

I don't laydown sets a lot, actually hardly ever. But in this case, the Preflop-Aggressor made such a suspicious play by flatcall/minraising the flop, that I was convinced he had me beat.
Giving him 70% of holding Kings after that kind of action, my laydown is +EV.
I guess I was as sure as that, even if his range could be wider here.
Still shove and feel good?

AlexB182 · #6 09-19-2007, 04:33 PM

Well when you're so sure of your read, go with it. But honestly, I think that it's very rare that a read is so precise online that it is worth folding here.

RoyalFarmer · #7 09-20-2007, 01:10 AM

Alright.

I laid the hand down.

Small Blind pushed and UTG called.

Sb showed 22 for bottom-set and UTG showed KK.

RoyalFarmer · #8 09-20-2007, 05:13 PM

Somebody?

GrandMelon · #9 09-20-2007, 05:15 PM

awful fold

Kornspitz · #10 09-20-2007, 05:46 PM

You're right, UTG really played this as if he was trying to conceal a strong hand. But there are other hands, that he would feel strong with. So many players at NL5 would never ever believe that their AA/AK could be beaten here. They play it like the nuts, because the really feel like having the nuts.