JJ overpair gets 3bet on drawy flop ($150 6max early)

[Novles]

Effective stacks ~$2700. It's like the 2nd or 3rd orbit. I've played one hand where I opened the CO, BTN called and minraised my c-bet on a low flop and I folded. I haven't seen villain do anything to note yet.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $15/$30
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $105, </font>3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($225, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $120</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $465</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $1,620</font>, Hero?

[nath]

Oh stick it in for sure

[markysals11]

allin

[imabigdeal]

allin seems a little spewy to me idk... without reads it might be nitty but i think i fold this

[SamG]

Oh man I fold. This doesn't look like a draw at all to me. Stacks are too deep to get it in with JJ here unless this guy is a nut.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't look like a draw at all to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, i think it's probably a worse made hand

[BS_SMITH]

Id say he has an 8 or a flush draw. kind hard to say since you havent got a read.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man I fold. This doesn't look like a draw at all to me. Stacks are too deep to get it in with JJ here unless this guy is a nut.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhhh this looks a lot like a draw.
Or a worse made hand.
Or a set. But sometimes you get the money in and lose. [censored] happens but thats why we look at hand ranges.

Its 6 max and you have an overpair on a draw heavy board. Get it in

[SamG]

I don't understand why everyone keeps saying the board is really draw heavy. It's not.

There's only one OESD (56). There are no pair+str8 draw combos. The top two cards are diamonds, which makes pair+fd less likely (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is possible).

If he's on a draw, I don't understand why he doesn't bet the flop a little bigger (to make us fold) or simply 3bet push. He just put a bit over half his stack in. Looks more like a made hand that wants action.

So my most likely hands for opponent are a set/2pair or some kind of combo draw, maybe a big flush draw (5d6d, Ad3d, 5d7d, 6d7d, AdTd), and I weight a set as being more likely due to opponent's bet sizing.

If this is his range, we're either flipping or drawing very thin.

OK so if you think he'd play A8, 99, or TT this way, get it in. But we don't have a read, and that seems like a reckless line for villain to take with one of those hands. Maybe this is a cash game vs. tournament thing, though. I am primarily a cash game player, and I almost never see someone play an 8 this way unless they're really bad (in which case we'd probably know it after a few orbits).

Where is my thinking wrong?

[ QUOTE ]
Its 6 max and you have an overpair on a draw heavy board. Get it in

[/ QUOTE ]
This strikes me as way too simplistic.

[ZJ123]

This is a draw like 95% of time, people dont 3 bet that much with a set ever, only hands i think beat us are someone who flatted with a huge hand and thats not likely.