Can I get away from this...2/4 PL deep

[nopepper]

On the big blind with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

the villian in this hand is in the SB and bets the pot. He has been pot betting pre flop 80% of the time then betting the pot 100% of the time after this. If someone stands up against him on the flop he usually slowes down. He raises pot pre, I call. Stacks are $850 for me, $680 for him.

Flop

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He leads for the pot, I re-raise the pot, he re-raises the pot again.

Whats your play?

[JavaNut]

Have you stood up to him and made him fold on the flop earlier? In that case he might be standing up to you.

If you don't think he can be standing up to you, but has a real hand, can he be ahead now? QQxx or TTxx are highly unlikely (x being any card, not just small cards), QTxx is possible but there aren't many combinations either as the deck is running short on QT. AAKJ, KKJ9, J987 all looks like very good hands against this flop. At max. you are behind in 10% of the cases which may be outweighed by the at least 10% chance he is standing up to you and at worst in the rest of the cases your are no worse than a coin flip.

Re-raise the pot.

[nopepper]

nice post, i have stood up to him a few times, with real hands each time though. I have gone to showdown with him once all in on the turn, he had a flush I had a 333jj boat on a jj93 board.

[Big Dave D]

Why is it 10% of cases at most?

gl

dd

[JavaNut]

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Why is it 10% of cases at most?

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Not anything highly mathematical, but based on the gut feeling on how many QQxx or TTxx hands that are possible and how many double wrap, AA, KK etc hands that are possible. According to the read villain can have anything and if we assume he has at least a decent draw for his reraise he can have any hand with at least a decent draw. QQxx is 1 times 43 times 42 divided by 2. TTxx is the same. That is about 1,800 hands. How many hands have a good straight draw or a higher pocket pair? I do not want to do the math but is that not a bit more than 18,000 hands? Ofcourse then you'll have to take into account some of those will not re-raise.

[nopepper]

dave, whats your opinion on the hand? anyone else have any thoughts? seems to be an interesting spot

[sc000t]

I personally don't like reraising pot. Higher sets and huge wrap draws will be the only things calling. I'd like a flat call and to see a safe turn card just incase he has huge wrap, then you can get your money in with better odds. And if he has the case TT/QQ then it changes nothing by pushing hard on the flop or turn.

[Full-Metall]

this hand isn't interesting. your hand is ahead of his range.

[cmyr]

yeah i think this is wrappy hands with pairs etc alot of the time, since oop he's going to be fairly okay putting his stack in there. Not sure i can fold this ever.

[autobet]

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yeah i think this is wrappy hands with pairs etc alot of the time, since oop he's going to be fairly okay putting his stack in there. Not sure i can fold this ever.

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