3.30 AQs v. shove

[creamfillin]

Don't know much about villain, I've only raised at the table maybe twice in 40 hands. The bubble is also about to burst.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t18298)
UTG+1 (t17475)
MP1 (t14213)
MP2 (t15864)
MP3 (t11075)
Hero (t5765)
Button (t5260)
SB (t2220)
BB (t7820)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t900</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t5235</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t4335.

[black666]

Looks good. With 17xBB the button's range would be someting like 88-QQ,ATo+ here and you have enough equity to make this call correct

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.947% 46.01% 06.93% 56729529 8546929.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 47.053% 40.12% 06.93% 49462500 8546929.50 { QQ-88, ATs+, ATo+ }


I have excluded KK and AA because $3 donks just love to slowplay them. Even if you add those two, you are still 50:50 for a +EV call.

Also, this range might be a bit to tight, but it only gets better EV-wise the more you widen it. I always like to think of the tightest range and go from there...

[willperkins]

This close to the bubble, what range do you put him on to push?

Lets say there is a:

35% chance he has AK
5% chance he has AA
15% chance he has KK
5% chance he has QQ
20% chance he has JJ-99

Is he aggressive enough to push with:

10% chance he has AJ or ATs
10% chance he has 88-55

You are being offered pot odds of 1.56 to one to call.

Based on the above range you are a 43% favorite to win, so call.

As an added bonus, I may have made him a little too tight as well, so you even be a larger favorite in the hand.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
This close to the bubble, what range do you put him on to push?

Lets say there is a:

35% chance he has AK
5% chance he has AA
15% chance he has KK
5% chance he has QQ
20% chance he has JJ-99

Is he aggressive enough to push with:

10% chance he has AJ or ATs
10% chance he has 88-55

You are being offered pot odds of 1.56 to one to call.

Based on the above range you are a 43% favorite to win, so call.

As an added bonus, I may have made him a little too tight as well, so you even be a larger favorite in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to be rude, but I have no idea where you're getting these numbers from. They seem like random subjective guesses to me. Although I think the likelihood of certain hands can change in some spots and you have to weight a hand more than simply it's chance to occur in the range for villain, it's a pretty rare spot, and aside from taking weight away from AA and possibly KK, this isn't it. I mean I suppose you could get into some really involved [censored] like 1 in 3 villains would shove this hand, so I'll put it in at 1/3, but I mean you're not going to do this at the table. What I try to do at the table if I have a limited read on villain is adjust my range somewhat so it is the average range that I think this villain could be pushing, rather than try to put in certain hands at .3 probability because I think only 30% of villains with these stats will push it...anyway I digress.

Anyway, onto the hand....it's the bubble, and he's shoving over a CO raise, surely AQs does very well against his range, I think this is easily a call.

[willperkins]

Please don't think you are being rude, I am trying to learn to be a better player. All advice is appreciated.

I realize you don't have time to do all of this percentage stuff when you need to bet. However, after a tourney is over I go back and look at it and based on what I know about the villian, I try to see what range I would have put him on. I assign percentages to that range and then do the math to see if the pot odds justifies the call or not.

Maybe I am going about it all wrong.

Please advise!

[Dunkman]

Here's the thing. He's always shoving AK here, and he's always shoving QQ-99, and imo 88 and 77 too. You have AK (12 ways to make) weighted over twice as much as the JJ-99 range (18 ways to make) which there is absolutely no reason to think is the case. QQ is only 4 times less likely than AK, not 7. There is a reason to discount AA because most villains would just flat it with these stack sizes. Like in this instance, if I feel like there's some chance he's pushing a lot of pocket pairs below 9, but most of the time he isn't (I don't believe this, just saying) I'd add 88 into his range. Like in this particular hand, I'd add AT, not because I think he's always pushing AT, but because I think sometimes he is, sometimes he's pushing even more aces, and sometimes he's pushing AJ+...adding in AT roughly accounts for this and may also account somewhat for villain being on a pure resteal. It's a good hand to add in for that reason, since we have it crushed it can cover a lot of hands we're ahead of, even if we don't think he can have it all the time. I do it like this because from playing I pretty much know how every hand does against some standard ranges, like 77+ AJ+, JJ+ AK, etc. Then I learned how adding certain hands affects those ranges, so I can quickly modify it for the given situation. Adding a hand at the bottom for bluffing/craziness is much simpler than trying to figure out a %, which is often pretty hopeless anyway.

[Dalek]

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't think you are being rude, I am trying to learn to be a better player. All advice is appreciated.

I realize you don't have time to do all of this percentage stuff when you need to bet. However, after a tourney is over I go back and look at it and based on what I know about the villian, I try to see what range I would have put him on. I assign percentages to that range and then do the math to see if the pot odds justifies the call or not.

Maybe I am going about it all wrong.

Please advise!

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing this isn't bad but you need a read on your opponents range in order to do this which you can't have if you weren't there.