Marginal call down vs. Agressive Villian?

NIX · #1 10-09-2006, 06:17 PM

Reads: Villian is 56/31/1.9 after 32 hands. I've seen him 3bet really light preflop (KJ, K9s), but be a little more cautious OOP than when he has position. Postflop, he's been erratic. He has been agro with strong made hands, underpairs, and I've seen him cap the turn and then fold for 1 on the river (although with the board/action in the hand, there is no way he folded the winning hand and most likely was bluffing/semi-bluffing). He tends to get more agro on the big bet streets than the flop.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero ???

Is this hand worth continuing, and if so, how far do you go?

milesdyson · #2 10-09-2006, 06:23 PM

you should check call the turn in this hand. when the preflop raiser checks behind the flop (especially a dumb lag one), he either has the goods or he has something ridiculous. when you bet the turn, sometimes they think, "oh ahah he is bluffing i raise!" and they raise with K5 or QJ or whatever. so, i really dislike bet/folding here because there will be a lot of stupid crap he plays like this.

i would check call the turn with the possible best hand, and if not, a possible 10-outer.

you know he's going to stab with any two cards after you check the flop and turn to him.

CrMenace · #3 10-09-2006, 10:12 PM

*grunch*

Based on this read it sounds like it is worth seeing the river. Pot lays 6:1 (rake removed), so you need 6-7 outs. That may be a bit of a stretch, but it sounds like there is some chance you are still ahead.

CrMenace · #4 10-09-2006, 10:15 PM

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I would check call the turn with the possible best hand, and if not, a possible 10-outer.

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Miles, I can't get to 10 outs. I get 4 for the 5s, and at most 3 for the A's. What am I missing?

DrModern · #5 10-09-2006, 10:57 PM

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I would check call the turn with the possible best hand, and if not, a possible 10-outer.

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Miles, I can't get to 10 outs. I get 4 for the 5s, and at most 3 for the A's. What am I missing?

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Miles is saying that against a villain this laggy the 4s might might be outs as well.

NIX · #6 10-09-2006, 11:59 PM

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i would check call the turn with the possible best hand, and if not, a possible 10-outer.

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If behind, I don't think I have 10 outs. The only way that happens is if he has a K2s or K3s type hand. I only have 30 hands on him, but I don't think he's LAGgy enough to 3bet with that. I'd say either the 4's are outs or the Aces are outs, but not both.

For CR and miles and anyone else, if you're suggesting I see the river, does that commit me to showing down unless, say, the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes?

btspider · #7 10-10-2006, 12:32 AM

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i would check call the turn with the possible best hand, and if not, a possible 10-outer.

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If behind, I don't think I have 10 outs. The only way that happens is if he has a K2s or K3s type hand. I only have 30 hands on him, but I don't think he's LAGgy enough to 3bet with that. I'd say either the 4's are outs or the Aces are outs, but not both.

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KQ/KJ type hands he's saying. he doesn't need a pair to bet the turn after your double-check.

milesdyson · #8 10-10-2006, 01:33 AM

you're right you probably never have 10 outs. i just count cards that make me a hand that i'll willingly showdown. when i play a donk i just think of it like that. not so much like, "hmm, what can he have here that plays this way?" because they dont play right. it's more, "hmm, what can i hit on the river that i will be glad to showdwon." in this hand i like 10 cards, and sometimes if i dont hit the guy will check behind his worse hand on the river anyway.

hard to really compute anything for these situations. i just go on experience. i feel like you should check call the turn here because you could have the best hand, and if not you can showdown w/o a care if you hit one of 10 cards. hopefully that makes more sense, because you're right that you can't possibly have 10 real "outs" unless you're against the hands you mentioned.

NIX · #9 10-10-2006, 02:02 AM

Gotcha miles, and it makes sense. Thanks for explaining.