When to bet the turn in PLO8?

[BYATT34]

Here’s a hand I witnessed in the first level of today’s WCOOP event. Blinds 10/20, stacks are about 3000 each.

MP openraises to 60 with A266 rainbow; button reraises to 210 with AA34 doublesuited spades and hearts. Blinds fold and MP calls.

Flop is Q53 with two spades. MP checks, button bets 300, MP calls.

Turn is an offsuit 5. MP checks, button bets the pot, 1050, which leaves only 1360 in his stack. MP calls.

MP’s call on the turn is pretty horrible isn’t it? With just the nut-low draw and pretty much nothing for high except a gutshot straight (on a paired board).

But I’m also not sure whether button is correct to bet on the turn -- certainly not as much as he did.

(Incidentally, river was a miraculous 6 of spades, giving MP a full house with the nut low, while button had the nut flush with second-nut low and thus busted out of the tournament.)

[TheCount212]

According to Phil Gordon's Little Green Book calling a pot-sized bet requires at least 17 outs with one card to come. MP has by my count 2 outs to a boat, and 12 outs to a nut low (any 4, 7 or 8).

[bbartlog]

Seems to me they can't both be horrible! Anyway, I would say that MP's call is fairly bad. Button's bet is correct, I would play it this way every time. You generally assume if you have AAxx and someone else raised preflop that they have a good low hand. On this flop, that means that unless MP has a miracle flop fit like A2 plus two of (Q35), button is ahead (he knows that MP doesn't have the nut flush draw). On the turn, button knows he's ahead for high and MP is chasing low 80-90% of the time. And he should bet full pot so that MP doesn't have proper odds to chase.

[BYATT34]

MP does not have a flush draw; it’s the other player who has a flush draw. I guess you mean that the button has 17 outs? So maybe the button could have called a bet on the turn, but when checked to him is he correct to bet?

[BYATT34]

Thanks bbartlog; that makes sense.

[TheCount212]

yes sorry I got that mixed up and corrected it by editing my post. The button could definitely have called.

[Jorge10]

The guy with the A2 is a donkey. Its a terrible call on the turn. The flop call is fine and so is the preflop call, but the turn call is just awful.

[BYATT34]

I thought so too, but the guy with A266 was Tiger76, who went on to win the tournament.