final table vs chip leader w/ 55

[dark_horse]

Final Table of Sunday's $20k guaranteed, 8 players left. The prize structure (mentioned in a previous post) is pretty silly:

1: 5400
2: 3600
3: 1800
4: 1400
5: 1200
6: 1000
7: 800
8: 600
9: 400
10: 300

Bullitpete and I are the big chip leaders and we have been avoiding each other thus far. I have no history with him, he probably doesn't know who I am, but I am aware that he is a high stakes NL player, and probably a good one at that. He is not trying to steal my blind and vice versa, but he's playing aggressive around me, and vice versa. Table is generally tight, with people making their all-in low M moves where appropriate.

Blinds are 2000/4000 with a 300 ante. Stacks:

SB (me): 111k
BB: 59k
UTG: 44k
UTG+1: 66k
MP1: Bullitpete 120k
MP2: 35k
CO: 21k
Button: 58k


Folded to Bullitpete who raises to 12k, folded around to me in the SB with pocket fives.

Generally I do not want to get involved with the other big stack at the table, and knowing that he (probably) doesn't want to tangle with me either, I give him a quality hand. I call for the implied set odds, and the fact that he only raised 3x the BB, and that we both have enough chips to play a pot. I feel that I might be able to extract a lot of chips from him if I hit my set and he has a premium pair and flops an overpair.

The flop actually isn't bad: Q83 rainbow.

But unfortunately I didn't flop my set, and I have to decide if it's worth trying to figure out if my fives are good. Before I act, someone types in the chatbox, "the titans are going at it, better duck"

I decide to make a probe bet of about half the pot. Normally a probe bet is less than half the pot, but against a better player and without position, I need to bet a little more to define my hand. The pot has about 30k in it, so I bet 15k. Ol Pete takes very little time in minraising me, and I get out. I basically feel that if my read is right he likes his hand (AA/KK/QQ/AQ) and is trying to build a pot with me. There is a lesser (but still possible) chance that he is raising for information, but since he doesn't know me very well, lots of players call this minraise almost by default. Perhaps he sees that I'm a thinking player and will read more deeply into the minraise, but it doesn't matter. I didn't flop my set, my probe bet got raised, and I'm done.

Thoughts on both streets welcome.

[DC Fletcher]

With an M of 10 you are not getting very good
implied odds. Small pairs and suited connectors
lose much of their value in this area. You will
not flop a set often enough to make up for those
times you don't. However, the pot odds are quite
generous and that is why I still call.

I disagree with the probe bet on this flop. A good
player will see this bet for what it is and you
feel your opponent is a good player. I would be
more inclined to check and fold. You had a plan
to either flop a set or get out. You didn't flop
your set and you didn't get out. You tangled with
another big stack and you may have been outplayed.
Stick to the plan and don't waste chips if you
don't hit a five.

In villain's shoes I often minraise the flop donk
to exploit the weakness it represents, even with
a hand like AK. Of course it is more likely he
has your fives beat but there is just no way to
know. Stick to the plan. Not another penny if you
don't hit your five. Or else you could just fold
preflop in the yellow zone and avoid this type of
spewage.

You said you can't outplay him and then tried to.

[jonnyd]

out of position with 2 overcards is not a good time to lead.
especially a weak lead.

if youre going to "outplay" him. a check raise would work more of the time, although i'd probably just check fold.

so c/f >>>>>>>>>>> c/r >>>>> large lead >> weak lead