heads up downswings

[dark_horse]

let's say you're a heads up limit hold'em player. for the sake of this discussion, you play only heads up. your edge against your opponents is thin, but it's there. you and your opponents play a very aggressive game. given all this, over a 100k hand trial, on average, what would be considered the worst downswing you could see? 500BB? worse?

[Wolfram]

Isn't HU more swingy than 6max? I believe 500BB downswings aren't considered rare anymore at 6max, even for winning players so my guess would be much worse.

[dark_horse]

why do you think they aren't as rare anymore? is it because the games have become more aggressive, or because there's more data to go around lately?

[Wolfram]

They aren't "considered rare" anymore.

It could be because the games are worse, but it could also be that we're just getting better data as time goes by. It used to be that 300BB downswings were considered impossible for true winners. Then it was 500, and now Hock_ posted a thread where he's a winner for half a million hands, and then has a 1000BB downswing.

[dark_horse]

1000, that's insane. Can you link the thread?

[Oink]

look in high stakes

[Leader]

Some simulations. Winrate: 1 BB/100 SD: 25BB/100 One hour = 100 hands












I count 5 of 10 with at least a 500BB downswing and one 800 BB downswing

[dark_horse]

wow. that is so revealing. thanks for those examples! some of those graphs look horrible. what software did you make them with? i assume SD means standard deviation. is 25BB/100 realistic?

[Leader]

[ QUOTE ]
wow. that is so revealing. thanks for those examples! some of those graphs look horrible. what software did you make them with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Excel

[ QUOTE ]
i assume SD means standard deviation. is 25BB/100 realistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't really know what it is. 20BB/100 is realistic IMO for agro 4-6 handed games. HU has a greater SD then 6m games...

[dark_horse]

how much greater? what about 2-4 handed games, where most of the hands are HU, then 3, then 4 players?