Overpair vs River Scare Card

[jmumm]

Full Tilt 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero ...

BB seems to be a bad player. He is 28/3/2 after about 100 hands.

Do I raise for value here or just call because of scare card. Checking the turn and leading out on the river makes me think he could've been playing an OESD and/or caught the backdoor flush.

[BigBadBabar]

call

[NIX]

When someone donks a scare river like this, it frequently means one of two things. Either a) your opponent hit his draw and doesn't want you to check it through on the river or b) he's bluffing and hoping you'll fold. If you raise, you'll get called or 3-bet by a better hand if situation A is true and will get a fold if siuation B is true. Neither of those things really help you.

I just call.

[FineStyle]

Thats a call. I thing raising has negative expectation as NIX explained.

[Absolution]

9T and Q8 play like this all the time, as well as the backdoor flush. His bet is basically saying he's afraid of having it checked through. However, his betting pattern and stats show that he has no idea what he's doing so I call just in case he shows his diamond draw or pair of Q.

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
call

[/ QUOTE ]

[aK13]

Owned by T9

[egocidal]

grunch:

A) you raise. He is bluffing and folds, and you don't get that extra bet. Or he's hit the FD and you get popped again, wasting another bet.

B) You call. He is bluffing and you get his wasted bet. Or he hit the FD and you save a bet.


Call.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
grunch:

A) you raise. He is bluffing and folds, and you don't get that extra bet. Or he's hit the FD and you get popped again, wasting another bet.

B) You call. He is bluffing and you get his wasted bet. Or he hit the FD and you save a bet.


Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

or this guy is an idiot and might play Qx or a Jack (or A8) ...

anyways ... I'm in the call &gt; raise boat ... but depending on what you see here, this could easily go the other way

[TarHeel100]

I'm calling this. If he's bluffing and you raise, he's likely to fold, in which case you just win 1 bet. If he's got at least 2 pair and you raise, he's 3-betting and you'll probably feel compelled to call and lose 3 bets.