50NL - QJs in a tough spot (2 pair, facing aggression)

[thing85]

Villain is 36/7.5/1.14 over 160 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $16.25
CO: $23.30
Hero (BTN): $64
SB: $56.50
BB: $76.40
UTG: $65.05

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $19</font>, Hero calls $10.50

Turn: ($43.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $43.55 and is All-In</font>, Hero...?

I definitely messed up the flop (I hate my flat call), but I was hoping the turn would clear things up. There's really no threat of any draw besides the SD, so if he's protecting anything, it's a TPTK/2pair/set. However, he leads out for such a small amount that he'd be giving ME odds to call if I was a draw. The guy is a bit of a donkey, so I didn't want to immediately put him on a straight. When donks lead into you for a small amount, they're usually on a draw. I think 90% of the time, if a donk flops the nut straight, he slowplays it, especially considering my PF aggression.

But, when I come back with a raise, he 3bets me for a fairly small amount. This is where I get completely lost, and decide to call and reevaluate on the turn.

Turn is a blank, but he shoves. WTF? This looks like a set or straight at this point, but it could very well be something like J9s/Q9s. What do I do?

[whyzze]

his agression is slightly below average. imo, a range for him doing this is KT, T8, qj, q9, j9, qt (only once combo like this because I think its unlikely), and then less likely are 99+. Of 99+ 3 of them beat you and the rest have some equity. I cant see you being a major favorite here to be honest. However, I usually cant get away from this. Id shove the flop.

After I stove it, it comes out slightly behind, but I think including qq+ is skewing it, and I only stoved suited hands.


Board: Jc Qd 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.896% 46.64% 02.26% 16622 804.50 { QsJs }
Hand 1: 51.104% 48.85% 02.26% 17409 804.50 { 99+, KTs, Q9s+, J9s, T8s }


So I think a fold is fine instead of calling his 3bet. But after getting to the turn I'm not folding. We are getting odds to call there.

[thing85]

I'd probably leave QQ or JJ out of his range because of his PF limp. Donks will occasionally limp AA/KK, but rarely QQ/JJ. It's not a certainty, but I don't think he limps with QQ or JJ.

[whyzze]

i forgot to say that I think a fold is fine not because of the stove, but because of the 'my hand is amazing' line he took here which makes me feel his range is weighted to the monsters and not the marginal parts. I'm confusing myself. sorry