I hate folding and calling

[TheWunderkind]

impliedd odds are good enough to call on the Flop and even if someone makes a straight you have always a solid redraw if youre live.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the implied odds is as good as it may seem since any J could complete a straight if someone has KQ. The combined possibilities that your set is no good if you catch a jack are to big to make this call profitable. Its a pity to fold a nice starting hand, but given the action and the board you should realize that you should give up this hand asap and concentrate on the next.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the flop is out of the question. Closing the action with 19:1 and as much as 3½ outs is more than enough. Yes KQ is a real possibility, but Hero will fill up to a boat close to 25% of the times he spikes a set on the turn.

[jstill]

whats ur postflop read here chez of his tendencies? total spewtard in multiway pots?

i dont think we could ever fold the flop getting these odds. Our bdfd isnt great but sometimes it ll be good ( i wish the Ace was a heart)and the set outs alone are enough. Even if we spike it and he has KQ we have usually between 6-9 outs, while not quite a pot equity edge vs 3 we re not in bad shape at all, its not a reverse implied odds situation so with any implied odds we have to call. If we do make the bdfd and its not good we ll play it cautiously as well usually multiway probably checking and folding if its 2 bets back to us.

As for anyone who wants to call the river, what do we beat? Do we really think we beat his hand 1/12th of the time here after he plays a hand exactly this way.

Hes only a 10% pfr (meaning he doesnt raise enough preflop) and he cold caps in the BB. I think he could definitely do this with worse pairs as I sometimes see people cap mid pairs after it goes bet call raise, not sure why but they do so I wont rule out 99 88 66 55 33 or 22. For him to fire those hands into 3 players on the flop seems easily likely, but to do it again on the flush turn ( whether hes got a redraw or not) I think we have to start discounting those hands substantially. If the river wasnt a K I think maybe itd be close to 1/12th of his range where we could call, since he mite cold cap KQ-QJ and fire the gutter on the turn with a heart draw and then just fire one more getting 11:1 to try to move u off a hand once its HU, even though those hands often would ck call the turn after being called on the flop by everyone. 99 88 66 and 55 are 24 combos so I guess the question is how much should we discount these holdings because of the way hes played his hand this hand? Its probably not a huge mistake to call given the player description K or no K but I dont think we should just say "Hes stupid" and pay off necessarily.

[TheWunderkind]

i said call because the K can considered as a blank imho and if weve gone so far with our Jacks on an A high board we have to pay off, i didnt realize we had a fd on the Turn. Im leaning to fold now

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
whats ur postflop read here chez of his tendencies? total spewtard in multiway pots?

[/ QUOTE ]
Read from 1 session of 70 hands is straightforward loose passive with nothing out of the ordinary. (Just looked through his hands and the only 3 bet or cap preflop was a perfectly sensible TT and that was after this hand).

but in my looking for excuses to call mode I'm thinking maybe he plays differently 4 handed, or maybe his tilting (I have just sat down) or maybe his game has changed or maybe it never came up before or maybe his seen something he likes and is copying it.

I decided I was looking too hard for excuses so folded.

chez

[milesdyson]

Chezlaw,

Did you ever get the seat to the left of the 70/10 guy?

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Chezlaw,

Did you ever get the seat to the left of the 70/10 guy?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I never move seats.

Interesting question though. Apart from you who does it all the time, I almost never see anyone change seats but I've never really thought about it before.

chez

[milesdyson]

There aren't many opportunities, really. When there's someone in the waiting list you never get the chance. When I'm playing 3/4/5-handed though, I'm always on the lookout for the money seat.

[Apanage]

Changing seats is IMO absolutely vital to optimize profit.
I would estimate the difference to be 1-2 BB/100 to sit to the left instead of the right against a bad passive player.
I constantly change seats and I´m a strong believer of the benefits especially when I take into consideration that I pay 3 to 4.9 BB/100 in rake depending on which site I play. It is no way I can get that money back if I´m not having position on bad players.

I fold flop but it is not necessarily an easy flop to fold and probably even not a correct one. But I know I will lose tons of money if villain has AA. And AA is a real strong possibility after seeing this preflop action.All flush draws also have redraws against made JJ trips.
Someone holding KQ is also a threat.

I really don´t think our implied odds are that excellent if we take that into consideration even if they still exist.

If I knew that this guy had stats of 70/10 over a significant sample size I would say that he has AA here over 33% of the time. Being loose preflop and just raise 10% of the time IMO often means that he only caps QQ/KK/AA from BB against two different raisers.
But I see monsters under my bed also so maybe you shouldn´t trust me.

I fold river in a heartbeat but since this hand has been posted I strongly suspect that you called and that your hand was good.

[jstill]

I think people with even tight preflop raising ranges just cap for the [censored] of it in this spot with hands that many just call with here or even fold (mids pairs, suited broadways ect) I duno why but when it goes raise, call, 3bet or limp raise 3bet or whtaever they come out of the woodwork to play their hand in the blinds despite poor position and often do so with a cap????

the logic behind these 70/10 types is usually not there, they do not play reasonably. these are the same guys that randomly decide to steal K5s in the CO but overlimp JJ-AA often.