who's the ididot

[HOWMANY]

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Heisen,

His river raise is bad because most players will never fold an 8. I think many are capable of letting go of 5x or 4x, though. It's the psychology of flopping top pair and having to know that he sucked out, I believe.

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982% correct. I think that folding top pair on the river here is the right play against almost everyone. However I have tried to make people fold flopped top pair many times in this sort of situation, it never works.

[Heisenb3rg]

Nah, this is like never diamonds... How many players wait till the river to raise there strong draws when they miss instead of pumping it with some equity?

A2, A3, K6, K7, A7, A6 ill assume are suited and not diamonds. This is 18 combinations in total. Add in some combinations for WTF factor

KQ, AQ, QT, T9 is 48 combinations in total.
Add in some combinations for WTF factor
These are like always raised on the river,

the 18 "bluff" combinations are rarely raised on the river and sometimes folded on the turn.. Making them HEAVILY discounted.

Even though I agree with you that A high becomes a bluffing hand in many peoples eyes on this board. Certaintly K high too.

You did make me think of posibiltiies I wasn't thinking of as well. makes a fold not nearly as obvious as I immediatly thought.

Edit:
Very good point in your edit... Even though the difference between 98 and A5 in this situation is pretty much non existant (this hand was an anomaly). Top pair does have that psychological effect.. Didnt think about that NH.
I guess I like the raise against me, because this is one of the few times I can actually let a hand go to a river raise [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[vmacosta]

I like villain's play in this hand. Obv his raise won't work often (as bluff or vb), but it doesn't have to. I know I sometimes overdo these fancy river raises but here I think its perfect.

[milesdyson]

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I like villain's play in this hand. Obv his raise won't work often (as bluff or vb), but it doesn't have to. I know I sometimes overdo these fancy river raises but here I think its perfect.

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Like I said earlier in this thread, I really think this river raise folds out 8x a minute % of the time. I mean, a very tight 2+2er didn't even fold to it, so basically only the weakest, most fearful player ever is going to make this laydown after flopping top pair. Now, even though I think the raise is pretty much pointless as he never folds out better hands, I would not note that this player is "bad" or a LAG. The thinking behind the play is fine, but in practice it just does not work.

[chezlaw]

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Nah, this is like never diamonds... How many players wait till the river to raise there strong draws when they miss instead of pumping it with some equity?

A2, A3, K6, K7, A7, A6 ill assume are suited and not diamonds. This is 18 combinations in total. Add in some combinations for WTF factor

KQ, AQ, QT, T9 is 48 combinations in total.
Add in some combinations for WTF factor
These are like always raised on the river,

the 18 "bluff" combinations are rarely raised on the river and sometimes folded on the turn.. Making them HEAVILY discounted.

Even though I agree with you that A high becomes a bluffing hand in many peoples eyes on this board. Certaintly K high too.

You did make me think of posibiltiies I wasn't thinking of as well. makes a fold not nearly as obvious as I immediatly thought.

Edit:
Very good point in your edit... Even though the difference between 98 and A5 in this situation is pretty much non existant (this hand was an anomaly). Top pair does have that psychological effect.. Didnt think about that NH.
I guess I like the raise against me, because this is one of the few times I can actually let a hand go to a river raise [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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Its a different physchological effect with me. when I'm playing bad I call far too much and when I'm playing properly (which I was here) I think I fold too much, so in decent size pots I'm now looking for excuses to call (found one here [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

My feeling is (hate feeling but can't produce any facts to back it) that I'm ahead here far more often then rational analysis like yours would suggest. I wonder if you're underestimating the number of times a new stars 5/10 player is very bad or full of FPS. Of course I may be over-estimating it.

(or maybe a new stars player is different to an addict like me than to a more balanced individual)

chez

[Heisenb3rg]

Yeah the "retard factor" of an unknown is so difficult to account for.

It is a constant thorn in my side when making decisions in big pots where everything is telling me im beat and then the thought pops in my head "well what if he's a retard" and my plan goes to sheet.

How do you quantify something like that?