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The Cab Problem
I haven't seen this problem discussed here. If it was - I apologize. There seem to be some different opinions with regard to the solution.
A cab was involved in a hit and run accident. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. You know that: (a) 85% of the cabs in the city are Green; 15% are Blue. (b) a witness says the cab involved was Blue. (c) when tested, the witness correctly identified the two colors 80% of the time. The question is, How probable is it that the cab involved in the accident was Blue, as the witness reported, rather than Green? |
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