50NL JT turns more outs

[ship_it_trebek]

I have 10 hands on villain total and 5 at the time, so no reads. Table was pretty tight preflop. Do I have enough equity here to fold out naked As and other holdings?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $5.15
BB: $55.10
UTG: $22.65
UTG+1: $17.85
Hero (MP1): $51.20
MP2: $37.75
CO: $57.70
BTN: $37.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, MP2 calls $2.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.25</font>, MP2 calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $8.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36.75</font>

[Ctrl.Dominate]

I'm not sure, my instinct says probably not. He's getting good odds. What about just calling?

[No1Addict]

I think AK, AT call here mostly because they feel is less likely you actually have the straight.

Other than that they should fold unless your stats say you are very aggresive.

[crunny]

I like this. Seems like you have a fair bit of FE against all hands apart from the made straight.

[Larude]

Table is tight, so I don't think AT is in villains range. And AK is probably reraising you. So yes you probably fold out a naked ace, the problem is though that it isn't a large part of his range. He will call with AQ, AJ, a set, a made straight; he might fold QJ but that is about it I guess. By the way happy birthday!

[No1Addict]

I'm very curious if the bluff worked. I thought you have lots of FE but I've tried something simmilar today and the guy did not fold TPGK. I think at the levels we play your fold equity is opponent dependent. Some just don't see what you're representing.

And happy birthday from my part also!

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
Table is tight, so I don't think AT is in villains range. And AK is probably reraising you. So yes you probably fold out a naked ace, the problem is though that it isn't a large part of his range. He will call with AQ, AJ, a set, a made straight; he might fold QJ but that is about it I guess. By the way happy birthday!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking. The flat call on the flop does kind of make QJ a very strong possibility, though hard to say if he'd fold this with about 2:1. Even if he definitly would, I don't think i'm sure enough that this is what he really has.

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm very curious if the bluff worked. I thought you have lots of FE but I've tried something simmilar today and the guy did not fold TPGK. I think at the levels we play your fold equity is opponent dependent. Some just don't see what you're representing.

And happy birthday from my part also!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the bday wishes. It did work, although he used up all of the new "time" function on FTP so he took awhile to fold.