AA vs a regular, i raise river and he pushes

schwza · #1 07-05-2007, 03:19 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($170)
Button ($884.60)
SB ($475.10)
BB ($813.25)
Hero ($638.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, SB calls $14, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($48) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $32, BB folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($112) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($112) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $75, Hero raises to $184, SB raises to $427.1, hero?

villain is 18/15 in 750 hands. his AF is 4.4/1.8/0.8 (total 2.8). he's made at least one loose call against me postflop. he seems pretty reasonable overall.

is the river raise too greedy?

BearHustler · #2 07-05-2007, 04:02 AM

Hmm, I'd always raise this flop. And even if you just call, why not bet turn after he checks?

River raise seems useless, don't think he's calling that with a one pair hand, and there's so many two pair/trips/boats/straights out there that it seems like a really bad bet.

So I might be wrong, but I don't like any postflop streets here.

Josh. · #3 07-05-2007, 04:09 AM

i think if you raise it should be bigger, and probably a shove. i don't see him folding 99 proportionately more as it could look like you're trying to take him off 99 (with what i don't know), whereas the way you played it it looks like a pure value raise.

my first instinct was this is 100% autoraise, but now i'm going back and forth on it. does this guy 100% bet JJ-88 on the river? probably JJ and TT, but given your flop and his relatively low AFs for an 18/15, 99 and 88 are probably too thin for him. for hands that beat you, any flopped set is obviously possible, but so is 66 (i don't think 54s is though given preflop action). so it seems like you're ahead a lot but there aren't a ton of value betting hands for him to have. and worse yet, he might not even always pay off with JJ and TT.

the problem i'm having is that his 75 into 112 bet (and even that he didn't check looking to c/r) looks more like an overpair than it does a set. so it's really tempting.

once he raises though i'm pretty sure you're never going to see 88 or 55, which are pretty much your only prayer at winning

AMT · #4 07-05-2007, 04:42 AM

i also am kind of lost on the line: could you break down a flop flat call, turn check, then river raise? i dont quite follow.

Josh. · #5 07-05-2007, 04:45 AM

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i also am kind of lost on the line: could you break down a flop flat call, turn check, then river raise? i dont quite follow.

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reasons for betting the turn would be to protect his hand, induce a shove from a worse hand (value or bluff), or to be able to bet the turn and shove the river for value. i don't think any of these apply given what we know. when you bet-call all-in you have 2 outs

AMT · #6 07-05-2007, 04:55 AM

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i also am kind of lost on the line: could you break down a flop flat call, turn check, then river raise? i dont quite follow.

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reasons for betting the turn would be to protect his hand, induce a shove from a worse hand (value or bluff), or to be able to bet the turn and shove the river for value. i don't think any of these apply given what we know. when you bet-call all-in you have 2 outs

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so youre saying you rarely expect him to put in a 3rd river raise right? i would expect this to be a fold then as a guy with these stats wouldnt bluff raise river in this spot i assume....even with TT/jj i expect him basically never to turn his hand into a bluff like this.

Josh. · #7 07-05-2007, 04:57 AM

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i also am kind of lost on the line: could you break down a flop flat call, turn check, then river raise? i dont quite follow.

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reasons for betting the turn would be to protect his hand, induce a shove from a worse hand (value or bluff), or to be able to bet the turn and shove the river for value. i don't think any of these apply given what we know. when you bet-call all-in you have 2 outs

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so youre saying you rarely expect him to put in a 3rd river raise right? i would expect this to be a fold then as a guy with these stats wouldnt bluff raise i assume

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well i dont know. after all my rambling i think i decided i wouldnt raise the river even though his bet sizing and to a less extent, the 3 pairing, are pretty compelling reasons to raise. if he comes out firing 90% pot i don't think there's a question that calling is better than raising

catcher193 · #8 07-05-2007, 08:21 AM

I like the river/hand in general, now fold.

PoppinFresh · #9 07-05-2007, 09:57 AM

Raise more on the river for sure, I think your raise sizing is much better as a bluff, that's just the way the games seem to play.

schwza · #10 07-05-2007, 12:10 PM

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i also am kind of lost on the line: could you break down a flop flat call, turn check, then river raise? i dont quite follow.

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ok, i'll give my thoughts. when he leads flop i think there's a pretty decent chance that he's got a set. if he doesn't have a set then the obvious possibilities are 7x/other pp or air. i obviously don't want to raise if he has a set or if he has air. 7x/pp are not going to play a huge pot, so i'm ok just calling here and getting some chips in later in the hand.

turn, pretty much more of the same. i'm usually wa/wb (especially now that 45 got there). i vomit if i get c/r'ed, and his worse hands usually aren't paying off bets on the turn and river anyway.

once he bets the river, i think he often has some kind of 1 pair hand, and that my line looks weird enough that he's going to look me up light.