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#1
10-20-2007, 07:25 PM
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A hi value raise on the turn.
Villain minbought and stacked off 1st hand to me w/busted gutter. Has been extremely aggro w/any draw and is generally dumping. I have no FE here hence why it seems more like light value raise than a semibluff.
I'm obviously never folding here, is c/c better though? Absolute Poker (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: is with Ac,Qc . Stage #795540168: Holdem Normal $1/$2 - 2007-10-20 19:01:01 (ET) Table: GEMINI DR (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer Seat 3 - WOJT ($39.75 in chips) Seat 4 - KEN911 ($30 in chips) Seat 5 - 3LEGENDE ($52.25 in chips) Seat 6 - MRSANCHES ($91.25 in chips) Seat 1 - BEETRICKY ($19.70 in chips) Seat 2 - VELARSTOP ($83.50 in chips) KEN911 - Posts small blind $0.50 3LEGENDE - Posts big blind $1 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to VELARSTOP [Ac Qc] MRSANCHES - Folds BEETRICKY - Calls $1 VELARSTOP - Raises $2 to $2 WOJT - Folds KEN911 - Folds 3LEGENDE - Folds BEETRICKY - Calls $1 *** FLOP *** [5d Jh 4c] BEETRICKY - Checks VELARSTOP - Bets $1 BEETRICKY - Raises $2 to $2 VELARSTOP - Calls $1 *** TURN *** [5d Jh 4c] [Kc] BEETRICKY - Bets $2 VELARSTOP - Raises $4 to $4 Final Pot: 8.5 BB 
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#2
10-21-2007, 02:04 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
Since you think villains never folding and we would have to call a 3-bet I dont like it.
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#3
10-21-2007, 02:26 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
Against this range for him:
88-22,AJs,A5s-A4s,KJs,K5s-K4s,QJs, I Have it at 42/58 in his favor. So it is close...if he is willing to bluff with you a random to cards or with ace high you become a slight favorite. So it is close and this is a real marginal situation imo.
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#5
10-21-2007, 02:33 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
your face...if you take into account the range I put in above as well as if he would bluff at the op with any reasonable ace (Notice I excluded hands like ak, aq, and high pocket pairs which I would think he would 3 bet pre then we are a slight favorite...like 50.9-49.1 type situation.
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#6
10-21-2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
Well, I went back and stoved his range based on how he'd been playing and it came out like this.
Board: 5d Jh 4c Kc Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 47.697% 47.70% 00.00% 11165 0.00 { AcQc } Hand 1: 52.303% 52.30% 00.00% 12243 0.00 { 22+, AJs, A5s-A2s, KJs, K5s-K4s, QJs, Q5s-Q4s, J4s+, T5s-T4s, 95s-94s, 84s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AJo, A5o-A2o, KJo, K5o-K4o, QJo, Q5o-Q4o, J4o+, T5o-T4o, 95o-94o, 84o+, 73o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o } Since it looks like I'm flipping with his range I agree that the raise was probably erroneous since I have to call a 3b there. How much is the mistake of raising here mitigated by the chance at a free SD w/my A hi? edit: I went back and added any Ax to his range since in retrospect that fits as well, doesn't make a huge difference but gives me a 53% to 47% edge.
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#8
10-21-2007, 02:42 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
[ QUOTE ]
probably would depend on how light he 3bets you. [/ QUOTE ] Villain will 3b w/any pair, any draw. He also seemed to be 3b UI Ax about 50% of the time (this was observed after this hand so at the time it wasn't completely relevant). He SD almost any Ax though.
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#9
10-21-2007, 02:51 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
heh I missed that we picked up a flush draw. my comment still stands here, though if you had any FE vs small pairs a raise would be good.
no FE means good implied odds. so just call and put in a raise if you hit also if you are playing vs people who pay attention a raise would be good for metagame. putting in a raise at a slight equity disadvantage can set you up for getting light call downs in later hands when you are a huge favourite you didn't mention villains preflop tendencies, but I think that a lot of the hands you put in his range need to be at least discounted. Ax, broadway hands, etc should be weighted less than a hand like J4s because they are often raised preflop, and crap hands like 73o should also be weighted less because they are often folded preflop even by bad players
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#10
10-21-2007, 03:18 AM
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Re: A hi value raise on the turn.
[ QUOTE ]
heh I missed that we picked up a flush draw. my comment still stands here, though if you had any FE vs small pairs a raise would be good. no FE means good implied odds. so just call and put in a raise if you hit also if you are playing vs people who pay attention a raise would be good for metagame. putting in a raise at a slight equity disadvantage can set you up for getting light call downs in later hands when you are a huge favourite you didn't mention villains preflop tendencies, but I think that a lot of the hands you put in his range need to be at least discounted. Ax, broadway hands, etc should be weighted less than a hand like J4s because they are often raised preflop, and crap hands like 73o should also be weighted less because they are often folded preflop even by bad players [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, forgot to say that villain will limp ATC depending on how frisky he's feeling at the time (have seen him limp/call 3b multiple times with random garbage like J3s, 83o, etc.) After the analysis given I tend to agree it should have just been a call down, but I definitely think raising in this spot against better opponents, albeit rarely, would be great for the metagame benefits since the better LAGs tend to give me the most trouble at this limit.
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