Top Top, Chop Chop?

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that when he leads after the flop with this board, then this means he has AA, KK AK and that this player wouldn't lead into this flop with QQ, JJ, etc. - that he would check instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he would lead this flop with almost anything, including draws & cbets. But he would not lead the turn with less than TPTK+.

[Leviathan101]

4 bet preflop please, unless you really do think his range is just is literally like QQ+, AK. If so just fold. And with 2:1 on your money you have to call the turn. calling the flop commits you to the hand. if he ever shows you like KQ here or even QQ or a flush draw this is profitable.

[jtr]

Wow. That's an incredibly specific read, but if you have confidence in your model of his postflop behaviour then you have to fold the turn don't you? You're either splitting with AK or losing to AA/KK and the EV figures don't work out for a call. (I assume you disagree with a previous poster who wants to rule out KK from the guy's range because of his betting pattern?)

More broadly though I just don't think that your theory about his strategy could ever be quite so precise. Could he ever have KQs for example? That would change everything.

[AZplaya]

this hand plays out so much easier if you just get it in pre

[Lordy]

Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.364% 01.36% 30.00% 6 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 68.636% 38.64% 30.00% 170 132.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Calling is nearly 0EV if he never shoves worse (assuming 22/3x isnt in his pre-flop range), this is a pretty easy call.

You're basically burning money by folding TPTK here. He's going to show up with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw or a worse king at least some % of the time.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.364% 01.36% 30.00% 6 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 68.636% 38.64% 30.00% 170 132.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Calling is nearly 0EV if he never shoves worse (assuming 22/3x isnt in his pre-flop range), this is a pretty easy call.

You're basically burning money by folding TPTK here. He's going to show up with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw or a worse king at least some % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling to chop here, using your numbers above, is extremely -EV. You are probably not accounting for the fact that when you do chop, you get only half the pot. The effect is profoundly negative:

EV = .3(70.05/2) + .01(70.05) - .69(33.3)
= 10.51 + 0.70 - 22.09
= -11.77

[Kasane]

Hey, Chicago, aren't we chopping about 60% of the time? Not 30%. It's closer to EV neutral to call.

There 6 AK combos, one KK, and 3 AA in the deck for your turn range. I think that's right.