*set - competent oppononent- dry board- slowplay (theory)*

[Veron]

In this post I'd like to discuss the pro's and con's about slowplaying a set against a competent opponent.

This is not a post where I'm telling you guys how to play poker in this specific situation, but I hope to start an interesting discussion and get some feedback to improve both my own and other 2p2'ers play.

I'll use the hand that got me thinking about the issue I'd like to discuss here:

MP = a very solid 21/17/3.5 regular over a decent sample. I'm sure he's a 2p2'er or atleast lurks a lot.

SB = standard 50/5/1 fish

SB ($126.54)
BB ($301.70)
UTG ($146.32)
MP ($297.46)
CO ($101.54)
Hero ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($28) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $22</font>, Hero calls $22, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($72) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero SHOULD CHECK!?!

In this situation my flop call looks very strong. Villain knows I'm a good player so I'm floating this flop like never given the multiway action AND the fish yet to act behind me.

Also the board is very dry so villain knows I can't be on a drawing hand (except for 54s)

When I bet this turn my like screams monster. I shouldn't be betting a queen here so when I bet I either beat AA or decided to bet my 54s.

Since villain will know this It's extremely likely he will fold an overpair here, so the best way to play this is checking behind on the turn.

It's very likely you'll get atleast another bet out of villain on the river or he will bet into you giving you a change to still stack him.

I think a lot of factors should be optimal to make a turn check like here, but the situations where it's very +EV compared to betting do arise and imo this is one of them...

When do you guys make check behinds with the goods like here?
Who's betting this turn, and why?
How's my thinking?

Thanks

[Nielsio]

Checking is fine. It allows you to do some stuff on the river like make it look like you're pushing him off a higher pp. Or maybe he will do something funky.

[tufat23]

$45

[carrotsnake]

people dont' fold overpairs

[Nielsio]

Making two bets that are going to get f u called is an option as well.

[Marwan]

That 2 is a great card for villain, takes away one of your set possibilities (most likely) and he won't put you on QQ given PF action.. he bet into 3 people on the flop so we know his range is pretty narrow.. prolly something like QQ-AA, a good Q. Make him call another bet on the turn, which he likely will with mostly all the hands he bets the flop with. He could be going for the stack-a-donk with an overpair or AQ. As tufat said, 45 makes the pot 160 by the river then that sets up $125 left on the river

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
It's extremely likely he will fold an overpair here

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously?

And why wouldn't you ever be betting a Q there?

[Fonkey123]

$45 is great.

[shpanko]

[ QUOTE ]
people dont' fold overpairs

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, especially on this kind of board. If he has an overpair he's checking to use the stack-a-donk line, not to fold. SO oblige him and bet a bit over half pot.

[BombayBadboy]

If he has AA/KK he won't fold in a million times.