KK vs cold-calling TAG

[Casper05]

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snapcall

The 8 is a great card

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what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

[Wolfram]

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snapcall

The 8 is a great card

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what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

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Still, it increases our equity from about 44% to about 47% if his range is only sets, big pairs or AQ. Not a big difference but it helps.

[ikestoys]

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Villain is 20/18-ish. The only time we've tangled before, he cold-called my late pos. TT open with AA from the blinds.

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wait, so he flatted AA OOP? and he's 20/18?? If he can show up with AA or QQ here I'd fold, but if he's repopping like he should, he has 55 or nothing and I call.

[ikestoys]

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snapcall

The 8 is a great card

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what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

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cuts down the number of 88s obv

[cs3]

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snapcall

The 8 is a great card

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what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

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exaclty my point... so how is that 8 so awesome for us? and jsut becaue it reduces the combos of 88 from 3 to 1, isnt a good reason to jsutify calling instaed of folding. (and im not saying calling is necessarily bad, just that combos of 88 arent a a good reason to sway one way or the other)

anyway, especally given history about villains cold calling tendencies PF, i think folding the river is fine, becasue what worse hand can villain expecet HERO to have, that he can get any value out of whatsoever on the river?

name one hand in heros range that pays off vs AQ

[stickdude]

This just doesn't feel like a set for some reason -

- A set will want to get it all in by the river (especially this deep) - he has barely over one PSB left on the river ($163 behind in a $153 pot), so why isn't he shoving the river?

- He has position and a fairly dry flop - why not wait until you fire a second barrel on the turn before raising - he can make a bigger raise and you'll be much more committed at that point.

I think I'd look him up and expect to see AQ here a decent percentage of the time.

[SamuraiJon]

I really don't see someone over 200BB+ deep firing this hard with out a really big hand. AQ is a possibility but I sincerely doubt he's betting it this confident that he is a winner with these stacks.

[Wolfram]

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so how is that 8 so awesome for us?

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I never said it was awesome, but it does help:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/sec

Board: Qd 8s 5h 7s 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.643% 42.86% 01.79% 12 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 55.357% 53.57% 01.79% 15 0.50 { QQ+, 88, 55, AQs, AQo }


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26 games 0.005 secs 5,200 games/sec

Board: Qd 8s 5h 7s 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.077% 46.15% 01.92% 12 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 51.923% 50.00% 01.92% 13 0.50 { QQ+, 88, 55, AQs, AQo }


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[bilbo-san]

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snapcall

The 8 is a great card

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[cs3]

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cs3,
why is c/c such a bad line on the turn? Because we miss value from Queens? I don't think he's calling 2 streets of value with AQ if we donk turn and bet river.

Or is it because you don't want to give a free card to a draw?

I'm assuming you're b/f-ing the turn then?

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i dont like your line becaue because he rarely if ever fires both turn and river with a AQ, but will almost always call both streets with AQ.
and yes, i think b/f > ch/r > c/c given how the hand has been played up to this point