Party 25/50, call or raise river

[Lefort]

I really don't see how MH calls with a worse hand... the only reason for pushing is if you frequently push-bluff river in some similar situations for balance.

But this hand in a box, I can't see how MH can call you with AA unless metagame issues are severe.. there's no busted draws and you're not double-floating often.

[cts]

I'd raise the flop just about 100% of the time here against him on this board and with your image. River I just call though.

[Ringo]

I've just woke up, so my figures may be off, but isn't villain getting around 3 or 4-1 on calling a push? No way AA/KK/AQ can fold for that, especially given your history. I can see AJ getting off the hook, but all other random 2-pair type hands insta-call too. I vote for push.

Also, why is the backdoor flush getting there a big issue? I don't see it affecting his decision much, if at all, and likewise for you.

I'm off for more coffee, but I'll think it over when I wake up properly. Bleh.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see how MH calls with a worse hand... the only reason for pushing is if you frequently push-bluff river in some similar situations for balance.

But this hand in a box, I can't see how MH can call you with AA unless metagame issues are severe.. there's no busted draws and you're not double-floating often.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i somehow knew maybehot folded aa to a shove on this river i would be completely shocked. he can talk himself into just about anything.

[Lefort]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see how MH calls with a worse hand... the only reason for pushing is if you frequently push-bluff river in some similar situations for balance.

But this hand in a box, I can't see how MH can call you with AA unless metagame issues are severe.. there's no busted draws and you're not double-floating often.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i somehow knew maybehot folded aa to a shove on this river i would be completely shocked. he can talk himself into just about anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm *makes note*

That makes it closer... If you're only getting value from AA/KK the obvious question is what his range is looking like after betting all three streets. I seem to think he's still going to have a hand that beats you more often than he has (and calls) with AA/KK. Do you think he plays AA or KK this way most of the time?

[fsuplayer]

i agree the river is a def. call.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see how MH calls with a worse hand... the only reason for pushing is if you frequently push-bluff river in some similar situations for balance.

But this hand in a box, I can't see how MH can call you with AA unless metagame issues are severe.. there's no busted draws and you're not double-floating often.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i somehow knew maybehot folded aa to a shove on this river i would be completely shocked. he can talk himself into just about anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm *makes note*

That makes it closer... If you're only getting value from AA/KK the obvious question is what his range is looking like after betting all three streets. I seem to think he's still going to have a hand that beats you more often than he has (and calls) with AA/KK. Do you think he plays AA or KK this way most of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

i do think he would play aa and kk like this a lot of the time, but i agree with the rest of your post...

well, when i first read this post i thought call was really the only play... but now that i think about it a bit more i think that a raise might be good, but even if it is, its pretty damn thin. there are just too many hands he has that beat us, and too many hands that just fold to a shove relative to the hands that he calls a shove with when beat. however, he definitely does have a reasonable number of hands we beat that he calls a shove with... just not big enough to shove imo.

[9cao]

Damn that is pretty close. I would say push all day against MH from 6 months ago but I would actually slightly lean towards a call for current MH.

[ggbman]

well enough players who are better than me have said this is a call for me to believe it... but if i am ever dumb enough to sit in a game with you guys i am definitley going to try bluffing in some spots where it would be absolutley retarded to bluff [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SuperPokerJedi]

Is he on tilt? If not, flat-call.