3 bet this runner flush on paired board HU when C/R'ed?

[Roadstar]

Reads - Villain is loose passive preflop like 35/5. I've seen him (incorrectly IMO) slowplay good hands before. Since he limps (and calls raises) a lot, I usually bet the flop and he would fold.

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.25
UTG+1: $61.10
CO: $65.85
Button: $98.78
SB: $77.15
Hero: $49

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.6</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.2, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.2, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero seriously considering a 3 bet here.....

I know the flop bet is questionable but I'm taking the pot down more than 50% here. When he called, I thought he'd be slowplaying an A (he'd probably bet the 3). On the turn, picked up a backdoor flush draw so obv check I think.

River - I make a slightly larger than PSB, hoping an A would bite. He min C/Rs - really I think this is a bare ace and not a boat. Reraise here or just call?

If we reraise, to how much? If we call, why?

Thanks!

[AceLuby]

Personally I'm not calling a push if he pushes over a re-raise, but a min-reraise might be a good move... I know it's generally bad, but if we make a substantial re-raise and he pushes I don't think you can call. However, I don't think he'll push over a min-reraise. If he will then just call, otherwise I might just min-reraise... Anything I'm missing? Obv if you don't think he'll push then a standard PS reraise would be good. Any reads?

[Roadstar]

I have no further reads except for the info I provided on villain.

Is this a situation where you have to figure how often he will have an ace and how often he has a boat, then figure out how often he will call a reraise with just an ace or something like that? Then figure out the bet size.

Theoretically at least, but in practice, how do we estimate this to size up a reraise (if at all)?

[TKWest]

I would just call the river check/raise - you dont have the nut flush so if you reraise him and open up the betting again he may push and then you have a tough decision to make.

But he may only have an Ace and given your small bet on the flop he may think you are just trying to steal the pot - but I still would just call.

[AceLuby]

Call is easiest for sure and we get to see what he played and note it for later (like if he flopped the nuts). Raising is tough because of the re-raise possibility. W/ only stats I would just call this and see what he has and how he played it.

[JNuey]

I think a reraise to $15 here is perfect, it would get value out of your hand, and still give you the ability to fold. Just calling is ok too.

[keikiwai]

I think this is a call. People love aces, including Ax, this doesn't bode well for you. If you 3 bet, what worse hands call? I mean a few trips yeah.... but even trips can see that the river completes a str8 AND a flush...

Even just reading your title, it's almost always a call, and esp. w/ paired aces and this hand, it's just a call.

I mean even if villain "only" has a backdoored flush, like you, you're often losing if he calls a 3 bet on the river.

[Roadstar]

Having thought about this a bit more, I'm thinking this could be a push if I thought villain is calling with trips aces and full houses (oversimplifying first)

Lets say villain would raise AJ+ preflop. So the range is approx A2-AT.

Of the aces, I'm ahead of AT-A7, A5, A4. 8 combos each so 48 combos. I'm behind A6, A3, A2 so thats 6 combos each, so 18 combos.

Ignoring other possibilities, I would be ahead 73% of the time so probably around 70% if you incl. higher runner flushes and other boats.

So definitely I'm calling the raise. To reraise however, we probably need him to call 70% of the time with a worse hand (trip aces) for a push to be profitable? i.e. ahead 70% of the time, of which if he calls a losing hand 70% of the time, he effectively loses 50% of the time? Does this sound right? (plus the dead money, so he needs to call a push just over 60% of the time with a worse hand)

The above is analysis for a push only though, so I dunno how to estimate probabilities for non-push reraises...

Any thoughts guys?

[Waingro]

Doesn´t villain have Ax here every single time? If he is stupid enough to take this line with Ax he is obviously stupid enough to call a 3bet, people just don´t fold trip aces. My only concern is if I should make a normal 3bet or just push it in. Of course some of the time he is full but not 3betting here is leaving some serious money on the table. I guess $18 is a good number.

[Roadstar]

That is what I'm thinking (see analysis above). However, how do we come to around $18. Anyway to quantify it a little?

For a push, he needs to call with trip aces (worse hand) 60% of the time... not sure how we analyze a non-push (if my analysis is correct to begin with)