Expectation for SnGs given different stack sizes

[DMMx69]

1-Table SnG. 10 players. 2000 chips to start.

If I am a 50% ITM player, (16.33% 1st, 2nd, and 3rd), what percent should i finish ITM if i have 4000 chips and there are 9 players left? (Or ten?) What percent should I expect to finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd?
How about 50% of the chips?
Assume all other players are equal and average.
Is there a formula to determine this?

Thanks for any help.

[DevinLake]

Not that I know of. ICM is the closest thing you've got, but it doesn't take into account any skill difference between you and your opponents.

[Fammy]

I don't think this can be calculated either...way too many variables per hand. I think that between Sklansky and Caro you get a general idea of the problem (I think it is somewhere in between)...

Sklansky (paraphrasing) You will have ~ the chances of winning of the size of your stack assuming all players are equal.

Caro (paraphrasing) The law of loose wiring states that players will change their play depending on the circumstance, and thus, the plays of the players ahead of them. Thus, it is COMPLETELY situation dependant, and almost completely unable to be calculated.

Not that this post helped the question at all...just some thoughts on why we probably can't get an answer to it.

Fammy

[DMMx69]

well, using the Sklansky idea of W% = %of chips ... when the SnG starts, I have 10%. But I win 16.33%. So how can i use those two pieces of info to extrapolate for various chip percentages?

I could do this emprically. But that would take a long time.

[HesseJam]

The best way to solve this is that you play 10K tourneys and count. It is very player dependent.