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#81
09-18-2007, 02:05 PM
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Re: Lotta love for Kentucky here
My lookout list:
Purdue Team total Over Navy Team Total Over Colorado St./Houston Over Memphis/Central Florida Over Utah/UNLV Under I would like the Purdue/Minny over as well, but I fear that it will be posted too high. 
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#82
09-18-2007, 03:14 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Gotta jump on OSU -22 against Northwestern. I hate taking OSU in big spreads due to Tresselball, but Northwestern is just plain awful. I figured this would be about 30. [/ QUOTE ] This is the OSU that was 3-2 at the half v Akron at home? You thought 30? One thing I've learned over the years is that if my estimate of the spread is 9-10 off from Vegas, I am not right. [/ QUOTE ] Akron is probably better than Northwestern. What did OSU finish vs Akron? ... The only way they don't cover 22 is if Tressel starts subbing after 1 half. [/ QUOTE ] Gimme 10-1 on that? [/ QUOTE ] Even if I thought it was a 10-1 favorite, I would be foolish to bet you since there are much better lines available. I will be pursuing those opportunities. [/ QUOTE ] where can you bet on the final if Tressel doesn't start subbing after one half??
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#83
09-18-2007, 05:53 PM
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Re: Lotta love for Kentucky here
[ QUOTE ]
More good analysis. I was actually looking at taking Michigan this week since they seemed a little undervalued after a fluke loss to Appalachian State and then a letdown game against what I believe is a legitimate Top 5 team in Oregon. If the matchups are that favorable for Penn State, I might lay off though. One thing I have to question though, is whether that "#1 run defense" label is based on just raw numbers from this year. Because facing FIU, Notre Dame, and Buffalo is enough to make any run defense look good, especially when those teams are playing from behind and abandoning the run altogether by halftime. Penn State only returns 3 starters from the front seven and is playing two true sophomores at DT, so I'm not sure how sold I am. Phil Steele has their D-line ranked 25th (6th in the Big Ten) and their linebackers ranked 3rd (2nd in Big Ten). It's still a favorable matchup and I'm not going to bet the Wolverines at +3, but if it moves to 3.5 or 4, I'm going to be sorely tempted. (Yes, I know it was at 3.5 shortly after open.) [/ QUOTE ] very good points the question is how good the talented young guys on PSU's d-line would be. They are full of sophmore's that were rated in the top20 of their classes. Just like Florida, these guys have come through with shining colors! It helps that the PSU squad has the best two corners in the country. They can play man to man out wide and let the safeties help out an exceptional linebacker corps and a d-line that has appeared to mature and come around faster than expected. Last year, Michigan got to morelli 7 times! But, Michigan's restructured d-line doesn't appear that it's as far along the learning curve. FYI--PSU's dline where recruits in the #8 to #17 range for their position. Michigan's were slightly lower on the whole.
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#84
09-18-2007, 07:33 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
TxAM +3, 1u MichSt -12.5, 2u PSU -3, 1u Troy -8, 2u / -9.5, 1u UCF -7, 1u NMexSt +17, 1u BYU -9, 1u UNC +14, 1u [/ QUOTE ] Let's check those lines vs today vs post-DrBob vs close: +2.5 same same -10.5 same same -11 +13.5 A couple of half-points, 2 2-pt moves, and 50% no move yet. For many 'cappers, this weekly exercise will be a 'truer' indicator of your skill in the s/term than a month's W/L record. Put differently, if you think ABC +3 is the fair line, you bet the open at +4, and it closes at +6.5, you did a poor job. And vice versa.
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#85
09-18-2007, 08:24 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] TxAM +3, 1u MichSt -12.5, 2u PSU -3, 1u Troy -8, 2u / -9.5, 1u UCF -7, 1u NMexSt +17, 1u BYU -9, 1u UNC +14, 1u [/ QUOTE ] Let's check those lines vs today vs post-DrBob vs close: +2.5 same same -10.5 same same -11 +13.5 A couple of half-points, 2 2-pt moves, and 50% no move yet. For many 'cappers, this weekly exercise will be a 'truer' indicator of your skill in the s/term than a month's W/L record. Put differently, if you think ABC +3 is the fair line, you bet the open at +4, and it closes at +6.5, you did a poor job. And vice versa. [/ QUOTE ] Truer words never spoken.
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#86
09-18-2007, 08:33 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
Projecting: Kentucky @ Arkansas -6.5, O/U 68.5 [/ QUOTE ] I think the books are onto me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Edit for disclosure: Although I did revise down after I confirmed that Monk was out.
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#87
09-18-2007, 08:59 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
Very interesting to note that Kentucky's Rafael Little has more yards on fewer attempts than McFadden. Heisman anyone??? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#88
09-19-2007, 12:01 PM
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Re: Lotta love for Kentucky here
UNC/USF Under 50 1 Unit
Michigan St/Notre Dame Over 43 1 Unit Miami Ohio/Colorado Under 50 1 Unit Kent St/Akron Over 46.5
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#89
09-19-2007, 12:02 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
I need second opinions on these leans that I haven't pulled the trigger on. Quicker the better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Mich State/ND O/U43 (not saying my side yet for these) Ill/Ind O/U 62 GT/UVA O/U40.5 S. Caro/LSU O/U 45.5 Ariz/Cal O/U 55
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#90
09-19-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Gotta jump on OSU -22 against Northwestern. I hate taking OSU in big spreads due to Tresselball, but Northwestern is just plain awful. I figured this would be about 30. [/ QUOTE ] This is the OSU that was 3-2 at the half v Akron at home? You thought 30? One thing I've learned over the years is that if my estimate of the spread is 9-10 off from Vegas, I am not right. [/ QUOTE ] Akron is probably better than Northwestern. What did OSU finish vs Akron? ... The only way they don't cover 22 is if Tressel starts subbing after 1 half. [/ QUOTE ] Gimme 10-1 on that? [/ QUOTE ] Even if I thought it was a 10-1 favorite, I would be foolish to bet you since there are much better lines available. I will be pursuing those opportunities. [/ QUOTE ] where can you bet on the final if Tressel doesn't start subbing after one half?? [/ QUOTE ] You can't. And even if he does, I think there is a pretty good shot at covering. 22 is not much against a team that can't beat Duke. I don't expect Northwestern to score more than 7 points. But hey, good luck on your bet on the Wildcats.
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