AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[black666]

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If he reraised w/ TT+, AQ+, and folds all but QQ+ to your push, that means:

He calls 12/45 times.
Or, almost 75% of the time, if you push you win 17k in chips and end at 64k chips.
If he calls, you lose 70% of the time, end up with 104k 30% of the time.

Pushing: (0.75)*(64k) + (0.25)*(0.3)*(104k) = 55.8k = +8.8k average.

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I'm not a fan of the BB's re-raise range. No way is he re-raising an UTG-raising big stack OOP with TT or AQ. Most of the time I even just call with JJ here. What is the point in building a pot OOP against a guy that is also 50BB deep with a hand that can be beat right now?

My range for him would be JJ+, AK. Everything else just calls behind.

Let's see how many possible hands villain can hold here. Because we already have an Ace and a King, there are the following possible combinations left:
AA 3
KK 3
QQ 6
JJ 6
AK 9
That makes a total of 27 hands. He is calling our push with 12 of them (44%) and folding the other 15 (56%). The math would look like this:

Pushing: (0.56)*(64k) + (0.44)*(0.3)*(104k) = 49.5k = -0.5k average => -EV

If you adjust the calling range so that villain only calls the shove with AA/KK (which a thinking player should do given the stacks, the position of hero and the action) it gets even worse.

So I guess we are all correct.
If you think that BB's re-raise range is TT+,AQ+ and he would call a push with QQ+, it's a +EV shove.
If you think that BB's re-raise range is JJ+,AK and he would call a push with QQ+, it's a -EV shove .. and it gets even worse the tighter you think he is.

For me, his re-raise range is JJ+, AK and the shove-calling range KK+ (maybe QQ+ if the other villain also calls the shove) for the following reasons:
-) we are on the bubble
-) we are both 50BB deep, so we should take less risk against each other
-) Hero raised UTG, which tightens the re-raise range for BB and also the calling range after Hero shoved. A thinking player should give us respect here.
-) The BB re-raised very small and he is giving us great odds to call or even induce a shove. There is no way he wants us gone.

Given the fact how boarderline this decisions is, I would just fold. We still have a HUGE stack and can find other situations where our edge is much bigger .. or where we at least know for certain that we have an edge.