ME trouble, huge draw vs. overbet

[AB_illusive]

Okay, so I'm sitting at about 170k and my oppenent has exactly the same (counted 1K in difference!). I've been playing very agressively at my table, opened about 60% when folded to me, and 3bettet a lot. I don't know whether this image has an influence in the hand - but it might.

Average is ~110K at this point, and blinds arh 1200/2400, w/ 300 ante.

Older semi-nittish guy opens, I 3bet, folded to him, and he almost re-clicks me. 65K in preflop. I got JT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3x

He openshoves 140K..... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[DVaut1]

I've alerted the mods, with the hope that they will move this to High Stakes MTT if possible. You may want to try to repost there and delete this if you still can.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I've alerted the mods, with the hope that they will move this to BBV if possible. You may want to try to repost there and delete this if you still can.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this a question? The old guy has AA or maybe AK/KK/QQ. But really he has AA so snapcall:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2848757
pokenum -h th jh - as ad -- kh 9h 3s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s Kh 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh Th 473 47.78 517 52.22 0 0.00 0.478
As Ad 517 52.22 473 47.78 0 0.00 0.522


(FYI you are 48.3% vs AK, 40.7% against QQ and, 34.7% against KK... you are 60.6% against AQ)

[adanthar]

he never has QQ but yeah, that range is right otherwise, so I suggest getting there when you call.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
he never has QQ but yeah, that range is right otherwise, so I suggest getting there when you call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[AB_illusive]

Hm, I thought this hand might bring a broader discussion, which was why I posted it in the strategy forum.

The thing is, that obviously it's a +EV bet to call - no doubt about that. He has AA about 100% of the times here.

I've asked some quite experienced MTT players, and they were all like.. "ew, autofold, sick", which doesn't seem to be the opinion in here.

What lies behind is (ofc?) the general discussion on whether I should take this +EV bet in contrary to having above average stack in a deepstacked tournament with 55 BBs left to manover on.

Any input?

[Cornell Fiji]

You didn't get much input because it has been discussed and mathematically proven ad nauseam that early in a tournament cEV approximates $EV and thus passing up a huge cEV edge like this one is passing up a massive amount of $EV, even after adjusting for any skill advantage that you have over the field.

Most people here openly laugh at the 'experienced MTT players' who advocate passing up this edge because they are passing up a ton of money in doing so.

I am sure that there are threads in the MTT sticky or elsewhere in the forum that address this point.

Maybe someone else will take the time to explain to you why this is a preposterously easy call but I don't have the time or energy to run through this argument again.

All the best,
Steve

[nath]

Were you planning to put PF raise size, position, or anything else useful in your hand description at any point or what? This

[ QUOTE ]
Older semi-nittish guy opens, I 3bet, folded to him, and he almost re-clicks me. 65K in preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is a horribly uninformative description of preflop action.

But on the flop it looks like you're calling with 12 outs getting > 1.5:1 so I don't really know where the debate is.