100NL How to play a few BIG draws....

[TehPokarKing]

Villain here is 24/11 over about 100 hands. He hasn't done anything remarkable yet, hasn't played any/many big pots. What's may play here on the turn?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($62.35)
MP3 ($96.25)
CO ($102.10)
Hero ($84.70)
SB ($57.25)
BB ($338.05)
UTG ($95)
UTG+1 ($98.50)
UTG+2 ($79.05)
MP1 ($89.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($8.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, MP1 calls $6.

Wanted to make my hand look strong with minraise.

Turn: ($32.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $16</font>, Hero...

What's his range here and what's my play against it?

[WCGRider]

Minraise makes me waffle, but tbh i dont really know what hand is calling the flop and thrn betting the turn other then

1) hes trying to float you out of position
2) he picked up a draw (unlikely given his pf stats)
3) is protecting an AJ type of hand (meh)
4) has teh goods (AA KK)

This looks like a float, calling then betting a pretty nuetral card. Maybe he has a TT type of hand, but prob would of checked it to be honest, i see this option as a decent chance.

Draw doesnt really make sense unless he raised KQ as yourself, in which case he isnt calling a push.

AJ somewhat makes sense, he liked his hand on the flop but not a lot, now he still has tptk and is firing off a bet, i think this is likely.

i dont think this is AA/KK, i dont see him calling the minraise without repopping.

So in summary, probably AJ, possibly a draw, possibly an overpair, and perhaps a TT/JJ set. Its not a 22/66 set from his pfr raise numbers, and only an overpair is calling your all in. (Also somewhat unlikely cause you have a K and a Q).

Cliffnotes, have fold equity, a very strong draw, and his story doesnt make sense. Shovament.

[MrWookie]

I'm not convinced on the flop minraise.

[Buzz-cp]

I think we are behind on the turn for sure. However we are probably at least 30%, so if there is any decent chance he will fold, then I would push here. If villain is not capable of folding, I will just call here with our many outs.

Buzz

ps I haven't actually done the maths

[TehPokarKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced on the flop minraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, ok let me clarify. I minraised because:

a) I did think he'd read it as a sign of strength and still think he may have
b) I didn't really want him to fold because I wanted to win a big pot
c) I wanted to make it easy for him to 3-bet if he wanted to, helping me determine how strong he was (at which point I would have shoved)

[Squareview]

wow. call untill you make a hand. full ring nits

[inferno]

I usually put it all in here and miss, though I dont think thats the best play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'd prolly just call the flop bet though