PLO $100 - keep pushing the 'blush'?

[glass_onion]

Converter won't work, but here I'm against a nutpeddling vilian. after 127 hands he goes to the showdown 6% of the time, wins 80%. 20%vpip, 3%PFR. I havent' been getting any cards, so my image has to also be very tight.

My concern is that I am overplaying my hand due to the fact that I am not getting cards for about a week. I really like my play against this opponent, but wonder about pushing the flop all in when he called my raise on the flop. Comments?

2s Kc As Jd Hero


Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with :2s :kc :as :jd
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: :tc :ac :6s ($7, 7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1, folds, Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

Turn: :9c ($7, 6 players)
[color=#cc0000]SB bets $6.65</font>, BB folds, [color=#cc0000]Hero raises to $23</font>, 3 folds, SB calls.

River: :5c ($53, 2 players)
SB checks, [color=#cc0000]Hero bets $50.4</font>, [color=#cc0000]SB calls all-in $35</font>.
Uncalled bets: $15.4 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $123

[Klak]

i like your confidence in your read, but maybe wasnt as rocky as you thought. i still play it like you did.

[CallYNotRaise06]

would he fear a 1/2 psb on the river more than a full ?

[RoundTower]

against a nit I like this.

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
after 127 hands he goes to the showdown 6% of the time, wins 80%. 20%vpip, 3%PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these stats hold for a more significant number of hands, I can't imagine a better foe to run the blush against.

[Pouncer]

I like the turn raise, but after the nit calls I probably give up on the river. The stack sizes don't work for a river bet. Why would he call a $17 raise on the turn and fold to a harmless river card for $35?

[glass_onion]

Well, I appreciate this. I guess teh two points of confusion here are whether I had enough hands for the read, and also if the turn all in was wise, given stack sizes. Seems as if you mostly alllike this, which is great, since I was pretty sure it was the rigth play until he insta-called me.

I wonder how much having the A out made his 2nd nut call more confident. I have to imagine the same opponents folds 2nd nut flush against (K) when the A is not on the board.

Any thoughts?

[guilt_trip]

I dont think 127 hands is a big enough sample to be fair, plus I think if the turn bet didnt scare him off and he's going show it down.

I agree that he'd be more willing to fold without the Ac on the board.