NL25 AKs vs a check/raise

AlexM · #1 01-16-2007, 12:59 AM

Villain is unknown.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $21
UTG+1: $25.85
MP1: $19.35
MP2: $15.20
Hero: $24.55
CO: $24.15
Button: $24.85
SB: $20.65
BB: $34.05

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8.6, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3, Hero...

iamVillaiNmo · #2 01-16-2007, 01:02 AM

I want to raise him the pot here but in a ring game there is a chance he limp raised with KK, AA, JJ.

I just call this flop
Depending on turn if he moves, I probably call but I would be very hesistant to if this wasnt 25NL

UnlikelyNinja · #3 01-16-2007, 01:20 AM

One of three things just happened:

1. Monster flop, JJ or KK. "Please call this small bet when you're nearly drawing dead and fatten my stack!"
2. Monster draw, AQd or ATd. "Please let me see a cheap diamond!"
3. Frustrated continuation bet. "[censored], my Queens are dead."

I'm guessing 2 is out. With no reads, the limp reraise makes me think 3 is actually likely. If he hit a set of Kings or Jacks, is he going to bet? I don't think so. On TV all them guys slow play their monsters, so he will, too.

This smells a bit like a fear bet. He thought he got you with his Queens, the King hits, and now he starts to flutter. He thinks, "I played superawzum so far, I have to bet now!" And does, but a bet that's like "omg plz dont call".

I don't know why I don't put this guy on Bullets, considering his superawzum tricky play. I just don't see it here.

Acein8ter · #4 01-16-2007, 01:29 AM

Yeah, looks like villian has QQ or TT. He would probably bet 3/4 pot or pot if he was fastplaying a set. He's betting 3 into a 8.6 pot. I'd call and see what he does on the turn...

You have outs, A's, K's and backdoor nut FD.

iamVillaiNmo · #5 01-16-2007, 01:30 AM

I mean, you def. do want to call cause you have the Back door draw.
I still think you could be behind. If you hit your heart and get the draw, you still have to be ready to fold because I dont see what he limpraises with other than the big hands that made sets.

AlexM · #6 01-16-2007, 01:34 AM

Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($14.6, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8, Hero...

Nick C · #7 01-16-2007, 02:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($14.6, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

I was feeling (cautiously) optimistic on the flop, but now it's looking to me like Villain is trying to get his stack in.

Frustratingly, another explanation is that he simply chose this hand to run a big bluff, and there's also some chance that he interpreted your flop call to mean that you're drawing (or had a weak hand) and his QQ is ahead.

But I would probably fold to this turn bet.

FWIW, let's try some combos:

AA = 3
KK = 1
JJ = 3
TT = 3
AQs = 3

AK = 6

QQ = 6

I'm not really claiming Villain's range is limited to just those hands, and I'm not sure how to weight the combos either, but it's something to look at.

iamVillaiNmo · #8 01-16-2007, 04:57 AM

Agh, It takes gut to keep firing.
That board just looks really bad too me for a raised pot and a villain who keeps betting.

matv · #9 01-16-2007, 05:02 AM

I would call on the flop and fold on the turn.

AlexM · #10 01-16-2007, 07:01 AM

I ended up badly calling him down and he had JJ. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I pretty much agree that I should have folded the turn, but if a K had come on the turn, should I just let myself get stacked here and raise all in? At that point, I'm only really losing to JJ.