Can I fire a third barrel here? Please???

cheburashka · #1 10-04-2007, 09:10 PM

Early in a 4.4/180. It’s still early, but so far Villain is very loose/passive/stationy (50/6/0.3 over 16 hands). If anyone is paying attention, I am playing very TAGGy at 16/13/3.

UTG: (1430 in chips)
UTG+1: (2030 in chips)
MP1: (1490 in chips)
MP2: (1640 in chips)
HJ: (1440 in chips)
CO: (1130 in chips)
BU: (1410 in chips)
SB: (1520 in chips)
Hero: (2850 in chips)

Blinds are 10/20, Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Three folds, MP2 calls 20, three folds, SB completes, Hero raises 100 to 120, MP2 calls,

Flop (360): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets 240, MP2 calls, SB folds

Turn (840): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets 580, MP2 calls 580

River (2000): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero???

So what could he be on, having limped in, then calling so far? I think he would have raised the flop with a set or an overpair on such a drawy board. So my best guess is that he's either on two pretty good overs (AJ+) or a draw hinmself. So, since Gobbo wants us to bet either for value or a bluff I either want to get value out of what may be the best hand and maybe get a call from AJ/AQ, or I want to fold out 55/77/88.

Waddaya think?

Acein8ter · #2 10-04-2007, 09:51 PM

Best guess would be a set or a heart draw. If he had a set (and a 1/2 a brain), he should have 3bet the flop to guard against the FD. But then again, this is a 4/180 and a lot of the players here don't know any better...

Players at this level will also call regardless of the pot odds when on a FD...

Toss a coin on the 3rd barrel.

blueguitone · #3 10-04-2007, 10:04 PM

I check this which is wrong, a bet for value is what most responses are going to say. You have built a big pot 1/3 of your stack 1/2 of his the pots to big to let go.

But I am new and would be confused if I had to figure this out on the spot.

Sherman · #4 10-04-2007, 10:25 PM

Honestly, I'd check the turn and see what happens.

BarryLyndon · #5 10-04-2007, 10:28 PM

No, a bet for value is not what most responses are going to say.

You can do two things here. Check and call a missed bluff. Or check/fold. His stack is a mess and I doubt he's going to fold with any hand that is better with like 700 left.

I also don't advice continuation betting here. Read Gobbo's post. One rule I have re: continuation betting is that if the SB limp calls, it's very possible he's doing it with connectors or some kind of trash and you're getting called on the first street, I dunno, 4/5 times?

cheburashka · #6 10-04-2007, 10:45 PM

Hi Sherman and Barry,

Thanks for your posts. The question I always have in this situation is: If I C-bet, and I am called, do I not risk losing value on the hand by allowing a floater on some kind of draw to bluff me off what is the best hand if I don't fire a second barrel? Or would you check-call the turn?

Acein8ter · #7 10-04-2007, 10:48 PM

Barry,

MP limped in initially, then called for 120. You wouldn't Cbet a limp-cold caller when your holding AKs?

jjyykk · #8 10-04-2007, 10:49 PM

This looks like a pocket pair. I don't think there's a single worse hand on this board, even flop or turn, other than JQhh or QKhh that would have called your flop and turn bet. I think you should have check folded the turn or check folded the river if turn was checked through. Once he calls your semi-strong flop lead from a raised BB, it's extremely difficult to justify continuing with a 6 outter imo.

Villains with stats such as that you've indicated are probably loath to give up flops that they've caught a piece of. While your line suggests an overpair to most observant players, he's highly likely to be incapable of thinking that through imo.

I also think if you're going to fire out the turn, you need to make it pot sized or even slightly overbet to have fold equity versus most of his range. Two bets in the 2/3rd range look palatable to a high vpp fish.

kenny7 · #9 10-04-2007, 11:17 PM

You really think this is a pp?? I agree that the limp/call pre suggests pp,but after that flop....??? If he has a set he should raise to protect against draws,if he doesn't his pp should be higher than the board,I'd assume he's def raise then,doubt that he calls twice w 22.....seriously I have no idea where he's at here,heart draw probably the most likely,in which case you have him beat.....

Having said that,I wouldn't fire on the river...and I 'd probably check turn as well.

erc007 · #10 10-04-2007, 11:36 PM

He never has 77;88 here. The way u played this u have to fire again, and when u do, this is not the time for a post oak bluff...lol. I'd prob shove this against a bad villain b/c that will scare him the most, but if he has a 9 or T; maybe even a 6...u lose. I just noticed that he has 1/2 his stack in there, so i think the turn bet/bet size was a mistake.