POG Mole - Pin Pals Team Thread

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who thinks tokyo no dealing was bad is just being results oriented. If we were all keeping track of where everyone was here, you may have an argument (maybe), but we weren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

What part of my argument is wrong? Is it that EV is a long run determination, or the part where his risk of ruin is high?

It might be +EV to participate in a game with 1,000,000 - 1 odds where the pay out is 1,500,000 - 1, but if you have to wager 1,000 each time you play, the risk of ruin is too high to gamble.

[Bulletproof Monk]

err it was perfect play from fnords perspective....

[fnord_too]

At the very worst it was a coin flip with no further information. With further information (i.e. that scott was there for the other team and he and tokyo were the only two players) it is exactly a coin flip. If both choose the same, no impact, if they choose differently whichever happens to choose correctly wins. QE [censored] D

Also zurvan, saying something is +EV in the long run means it is +EV each and every time. You are confusing EV of a single (possibly repeating) opportunity with evaluation of multiple opportunities. In your going broke example, if that was the only investment you could make, then you should take that investment with any money you have dedicated to investing.

[Alex Jacob]

in case anyone cares, i misread the instructions and thought we were going to get PMs so i was waiting for that and never submitted.. oops. sorry team

[Bulletproof Monk]

aj - fairly sure everyone did roughly similar things, i dont think many ppl would have deliberately stopped playing.

actually, did anyone actually stop playing by making a conscious decision to 'deal'?

[btmagnetw]

the ONLY reason to no deal the last deal is if you think it's likely that 400,000 will lose the game while 1,000,000 will win it.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
the ONLY reason to no deal the last deal is if you think it's likely that 400,000 will lose the game while 1,000,000 will win it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read my post, it is a coin flip. The only way your statement is true is if there is no on on the other side who has the option or if there is a disparity in the numbers such that you can lock the other side out by dealing. If they other side has the option, and they No deal and get a million, the 600+K difference will lose the game for you.

[fnord_too]

note: number of players with the option is what I mean above when I say disparity in the numbers such that you can lock the other side out, of course you need some score information to determine this....

[btmagnetw]

okok, i'm falling into hindsight bias. whatever, just get this game moving.

[Hold'em 07]

Come on Nich, just clarify that I've been eliminated so everyone stops thinking I'm the mole.