*** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***

[Performify]

TEN @ DEN

[kyro]

Denver -3? Overreaction to this week? What a crazy line.

[TooTallT]

Is Lendale White hurt? I saw him limping around against the Jags. If he's OK, then this line is the craziest so far.

I don't have Pinny, so I'll be looking at my outs (in order of preference) for:

1) +3.5 -140
2) +3 -120
3) +9 -244 (basically teasing -3 high juice at 3tm +180)

Playing +2.5 is obviously a donk move.

[alwardc4]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Lendale White hurt? I saw him limping around against the Jags. If he's OK, then this line is the craziest so far.

I don't have Pinny, so I'll be looking at my outs (in order of preference) for:

1) +3.5 -140
2) +3 -120
3) +9 -244 (basically teasing -3 high juice at 3tm +180)

Playing +2.5 is obviously a donk move.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are trying to get the least amount of yards per carry then yes, losing White hurts Tennessee.

[kyro]

Lines already down to 2.5

[TooTallT]

Then teasing is the right play

[kyro]

OK, I'm dumb. This is where sportsbetting will be a challenge for me. I think I can spot edges in lines based on the actual teams, but I'm not sure how well I'll do with the actual math even though I consider myself a math nerd.

My book is offering Ten -2 (-110), and Ten PK (+110).

I'm pretty sure Ten PK (+110) is the far better line, correct?

[Jazzy3113]

The way you have written the odds means that

Tenn -2 is you bet 110 to win 100.
Tenn ML is you bet 100 to win 110.

Does that sound right to you?

[kyro]

tenn +2 ldo

[kyro]

If I think Tenn wins 50% of the time, then I need Denver to win by 1 or 2 (I'm assuming the odds of winning by 1 are similar enough to winning by 2 for this), 3.28% of the time each for it to be breakeven. Anymore, and Ten +2 is a better line.