*** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
True, but opposing offenses only pass so little because they know they can run so effectively. The Packers can't run so effectively, so they're stuck passing a lot, which the Broncos know.

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I'm not sure that the packers can't run effectively. They ran the ball just fine against Chicago.

[BRDSR]

Fair enough; if they can run effectively against anyone, it will be against the Broncos. Still, if the Packers are forced to go to the ground to score points, they won't score as many points as they usually do. And if the Broncos are without Henry, or he is hampered by injury, they will score (a little) less than they usually do.

I've decided: GB +3 and the under.

[CrushinFelt]

wtf? I hadn't looked at the line 'til just now. Surprised that Den is favored. Thought this would be a pick due to Den being at home.

[stakman1011]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? I hadn't looked at the line 'til just now. Surprised that Den is favored. Thought this would be a pick due to Den being at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too...Perhaps we're both underestimating the Denver HFA?

Either way I'm on GB +3

[rush66]

Thank you mogwai for finally stating the obvious. To tlt, he wasn't stating that they sucked as much as pointing out that everyone is saying the reason Denver will cover is because of that Y/G stat, he was just contradicting that statement in order to keep others from relying on it.

[mogwai316]

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I'm on GB +145 for 1u, and leaning towards the over.

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Ended up with these plays for tonight:
GB moneyline +145 - risk 1.38u to win 2u
GB over 20 - risk 0.55u to win 0.5u
GB +9 / total over 38 - risk 0.55u to win 0.5u

[CrushinFelt]

I mean don't get me wrong, I think GB's lack of rushing is going to hurt them as the season goes on, but not against the Denver run D.

And let's look at who they've held to little passing yards:

Jax - 27th in Passing Yards / Game

Oakland - 28th in Passing Yards / Game

Buffalo - 31st in Passing Yards / Game

Indy - Nothing to say here, they only allowed 193 yards
Chargers - 22nd in Passing Yards / Game (Denver allowed 270)

Pit - 21st in Passing Yards / Game (Denver allowed 260)

I am not impressed at all with Denver's passing D and I think Green Bay's 2nd ranked passing game (in yards / game) should be able to pick them apart.

[rush66]

Ive changed my mind. Teasing Den to +4 and over 36.5. I am not impressed with Den's Pass D, but I'm also not impressed with GB's passing O. GB has less Y/A against weaker competition than Denver does. Check the stats for yourself. However, I like denver, because the GB ML has become to BSP for me to play them. I know, my logic is flawless right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[prodonkey]

champ bailey starting.. YAY.. liking my Denver bet more now.

[CrushinFelt]

GB ML for 2u (+130)
GB +3 / Under 44 parlay for 1u

PS I still dont know how to account properly for GBs [censored] run game but oh well

gogogo favre

Edited for ML odds (gay ass Bodog)