SIA NFL Props

[pokergrader]

I am a donk and these NFL Props always stand out to me.

+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).

+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal

+1500 Any QB Pass for 500 yards in a game

+1700 Any game end in a tie

+3000 Any team come back from being down 30 points in a game.

Anybody see any value in these? Max bet is $100 per.

[billygrippo]

im a huge square but these look -ev to me

[Homer]

I am now officially a donk as well. I would bet the ones in bold:

+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).

+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal

+1500 Any QB Pass for 500 yards in a game

+1700 Any game end in a tie

+3000 Any team come back from being down 30 points in a game.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I am now officially a donk as well. I would bet the ones in bold:

+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).

+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal

[/ QUOTE ]

[MicroBob]

Either I'm getting better at this stuff or NajD is getting worse because I immediately liked the same 2 as Naj.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am now officially a donk as well. I would bet the ones in bold:

+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).

+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

really rough calc on the one we differed on, going only since 1990.

17 seasons * 256 games/season = 4352 games

3 ties

P(tie in a given season) = 1 - (4349/4352)^256 = 16.1%

makes true line about +521

+1700 is way off from that...what am i missing?

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
Either I'm getting better at this stuff or NajD is getting worse because I immediately liked the same 2 as Naj.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokergrader]

Well I bet on Rusher and FG before making this thread so clearly you all are getting worse.

Now I'm getting more interested in Tie.

[dankhank]

wikipedia has eight ties in the last 20 years in the NFL

[dankhank]

btw is anyone able to get $100 on these? i can only do $50. i am also getting only $88 on a lot of college totals.