FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well according to your own analysis, the play was bad in retrospect since open-folding would've given you better equity.

[suzzer99]

If you're gonna minraise, why not limp? I don't see either SB or BB playing a minraise that differently than a limp.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're gonna minraise, why not limp? I don't see either SB or BB playing a minraise that differently than a limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good idea since it would have the same effect z32 intended, at a significantly lower price. Still open folding or open pushing might be better, dependent on BB.

[Ditch Digger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way you only get 3rd 15% of the time when you win. The other guy just isn't short enough. The whole minraise to make SB make a mistake is better when you have a lot less chips than 3rd place. Say you have 1300 chips and SB has 2500 or so.

[marand]

I have never miniraised in this situation. I would most often just push here. But the more I think about the more I like it. It puts SB in a really awkward position. I think his best choice is probably to call if he wants to play his hand.

If BB pushes over he can call if you call and fold if you fold. (Since you will get hit by the blind first)

Once you have raised and both of them are all in I would guess that your best move is to fold. I haven't done any math but being the shortest stack in a 3-way all-in usually always suck.

[z32fanatic]

[ QUOTE ]

However, I'm going to go against everyone and say that I don't like the min. raise UNLESS you think it gives you more fold equity from the BB than a push does. I think having more fold equity is really what you want more than anything here. The chances that SB and BB are both going to play are pretty low so fold equity should be your main concern.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

The minraise is better IMO than a regular shove because shoving has no advantages that I can see over minraising. If you shove, the BB is going to see "call 900" and hit call to knock you out. If you minraise, he's going to have a difficult time re-minraising with hands like T4o just because it will be harder for him to figure out that he should do it with any 2 (just like he should call any 2). I guess I'm saying I think it gives you more FE. I just don't see what advantages shoving has over minraising when you have no FE.

[McShove]

lol sngs

[TravestyFund]

CHIP!!! Wus up hoomey, hadnt talked to u in a while, also hadnt posted strat in a while, so heres my 2 cents....

Never rly was a fan of min raising PF. I like it better in STT than Cash FWIW. If youre all in PF, theres always gonna b more FE IMO, therefore in this spot I like shove.

Folding should NOT be an option, KQ is way too gooot on button.

As played, with the minraise, I dunno, I guess call, meh fold. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Gramps]

If SB is a regular, it makes the MR/fold a better play. It actually can give you better FE against him, esp. if he vibes BB has no qualms about over-calling in a 3-way pot with a wie range. I mean, he can flat call 1/2 his remaining stack, but with 3 short stacks vs. two, it's a worse play than normal for him, b/c if you both fold now 3rd SS has a huge 2nd place lead.

Of course, you start doing it all the time, some people get pissed at your fancy-pants-MR-[censored] and then they may be more inclined to call you. It depends largely on what you think of BB, and what you think BB thinks of you, how he manages "his" bubble, etc. People do fold their BB's getting better than 2:1 sometimes, especially if it keeps their pwnage in tact.

[z32fanatic]

TF,

You are too busy winning donkaments and WSOP seats to respond to my IMs.



Gramps,

In typical fashion you have explained everything without giving an actual answer! What do you do!!!!!11