Tricked by Math

[Thremp]

I've made several posts deriding people for shooting for a ~3% ROI since that type of edge is EZPZ to get and IMO a floor for any serious sports bettor. I'm gonna post some of my numbers and a caveat on using analysis to determine that you are a long term winner when you are a handicapper. My plays vary in EV and ROI from some that were -5% to some over 200%. I've also run very good over this period. And my unit size hasn't increased a great deal.

Total Wagered: 213.8u
Total Won: 49.7u
ROI: 23.22%
Total Wagers: ~450

Some plays are randomly larger than other since betting limits impede me more than Kelly stake atm. This is also useful in the fact that a hot run (speaking of which... Between teasers and Bradley feking me... I dumped 10u on that) doesn't skew my numbers do to constantly increasing wager size. Now at this point those of you who're mathematically inclined can run some numbers and determine that I'm a long term winner using whatever CI etc etc.

Now for the point. I've got a pretty good idea of what my long term ROI will be. And it isn't in the double digits. At some point theory needs to be rejoined with your actual real world results. To pick on a poster here IIRC MT2R did some numerical analysis on his first season where he determined that he was a winner or something of the sort (he can clarify details since I'm lazy), but since then he's been basically break even over a long string of picks.

Short Version: Yes, you are likely an outlier.

[kaboshedx]

Ok I'll bite, after how many bets does real life supercede maths?

[B00T]

BRADLEY!!!